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Saying the Quiet Bits Out Loud: Bank of Canada Aims to Raise Unemployment
It will seem irrational to most Canadians, but the surprising truth is that the Bank of Canada is explicitly trying to increase unemployment. The Bank’s Governor Tiff Macklem recently claimed that the unemployment rate in Canada was too low: “unsustainable,” in his words, and must be increased by using high interest rates to slow down economic activity and reduce employment. This idea – of using unemployment as a deliberate tool to undermine wages and protect business profit margins – has been implicit within orthodox monetary policy for many years. But it’s both rare and angering to hear that made explicit as the goal of economic policy. In this commentary, originally…
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Webinar on Inflation, Recession … or Both!
Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford recently presented a keynote lecture to a webinar on Canada’s uncertain macroeconomic outlook, hosted by the B.C. office of the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. The presentation covered the causes and consequences of the recent acceleration of inflation in Canada – stressing that higher prices cannot be blamed on rising wages or ‘overheated’ labour markets. Instead, a combination of supply disruptions, international pressures, and record profit-taking by Canadian businesses are the main forces driving faster inflation. Unfortunately, the conventional response to higher inflation (quickly hiking interest rates to reduce employment and overall spending) will make things worse. Most economists now expect a recession…
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CBC’s The Current Looks at Inflation and Food Prices
The sharp acceleration of food prices (up over 11% in the last 12 months) has sparked anger and hardship in Canadian families struggling to pay the bills of day-to-day life. It has also raised troubling questions about the corporate power of the major supermarket chains, which control a dominant share of the overall food retail industry. Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford recently joined Matt Galloway, host of CBC’s national radio program The Current, for an in-depth conversation about food prices, why they’re so high, the role of corporate profits in driving up prices for food and other necessities – and, most important, what we can do about it.…
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Who Wins, Who Loses in the Fight Against Inflation
The Centre for Future Work recently co-published with the Canadian Labour Congress a major new report on inflation: its causes, consequences, and how it could be tackled in a more balanced and fair manner (rather than throwing the whole economy into recession, which seems the inevitable outcome of the Bank of Canada’s current strategy). The report has generated considerable attention in print, broadcast, and social media. CBC’s daily political podcast, Front Burner, published a feature-length interview with report author Jim Stanford (Director of the Centre for Future Work) on why the Bank of Canada’s current approach is punishing workers for inflation they clearly did not cause. He discusses the options…
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Podcast: Inflation, Recession, and Fairness
Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford recently joined renowned political analyst and opinion researcher David Herle, on his Herle Burly podcast, to discuss the rising risk of recession in Canada, why the Bank of Canada is raising interest rates so aggressively, and whether there is a fairer way to manage post-COVID inflationary pressures. Stanford warned of the dangers of applying 1970s-vintage inflation theories and remedies to the unique combination of supply disruptions, energy price shocks, and oligopolistic market power than explain the current upsurge in inflation. He also emphasized that governments have ample fiscal room (given rapidly shrinking deficits) to support jobs and economic activity in months if the…
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Appearing Before the Senate Committee On Banking, Commerce and the Economy
Centre for Future Work Economist and Director Jim Stanford was invited to appear as a witness before the Senate of Canada’s Standing Committee on Banking, Commerce and the Economy, to discuss the darkening outlook for Canada’s job market, and appropriate policy responses. The appearance lasted for one hour. Jim’s appearance was broadcast on CPAC. Here is a video link (Jim’s testimony starts at the 1:01:00 mark): Here are Jim’s speaking notes for his opening remarks: Speaking Notes for Dr. Jim Stanford, Economist and Director of the Centre for Future Work Madam Chair and Senators, thank you very much for the opportunity to appear before you today. I…
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Don’t Make Monetary Policy on Twitter
The Bank of Canada has been under attack from all sides for its actions (or, in some critics’ eyes, inaction) in response to rising inflation. To reinforce public support for its actions, the Bank has launched a communications offensive to explain – and justify – its actions. The Bank even posted a lengthy thread on Twitter arguing that since inflation hurts “all Canadians,” its efforts to bring inflation down through rapid interest rate hikes will benefit us all. This attempt to dumb-down monetary policy making was not just ineffective in its tone. It inadvertently revealed major flaws in the Bank’s economic reasoning. In this commentary, originally published in the Toronto…
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“We Need All Hands on Deck in this Labour Market”
Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford appeared on CBC’s News Network, with host Natasha Fatah, to discuss new employment data confirming a rapid slowdown in Canada’s labour market. He argued that a perverse consequence of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada has been a reduction in labour force participation: down 0.7 points since the tightening began in March, equivalent to the loss of 225,000 workers. “We need all hands on deck in this labour market”, he said, to address supply chain problems, the health care crisis, and other challenges. In this context, “throwing cold water over the whole economy” has a perverse, self-defeating impact on the…
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Higher Interest Rates Starting to Bite in Canada’s Labour Market
New labour force data from Statistics Canada confirm that Canada’s economy is already slowing down sharply as a result of aggressive interest rate increases begun by the Bank of Canada in March. With the U.S. economy (Canada’s largest trading partner) already in technical recession (with two consecutive quarters of real GDP contraction), and monthly GDP data showing no growth since May, this new report adds to worries that Canada’s economy is heading into recession as well. The labour force data confirm that the aggressive monetary tightening begun by the Bank of Canada in March is having a negative impact on employment and participation in Canada’s labour market. Employment fell in…
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Podcast: Rising Inflation Creates Tension in Collective Bargaining
With year-over-year inflation topping 8%, far in advance of nominal wage gains, workers in all parts of Canada’s economy are struggling to protect their real living standards. Real wages have declined by more than 3% in the last 12 months alone, with further erosion pegged in the months ahead. Collective bargaining tables in both the private and public sectors have been roiled by the acceleration in inflation. Workers are determined to try to keep up with inflation. And that determination is only heightened by the fact that corporate profits have increased so strongly alongside the rise in consumer prices. Some major strikes have already occurred (such as in Ontario’s construction…