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	<title>Inflation Archives - Centre for Future Work</title>
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	<title>Inflation Archives - Centre for Future Work</title>
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		<title>New Report Shows Speculative Oil Markets Drove Inflation Crisis — And It’s Poised to Happen Again</title>
		<link>https://centreforfuturework.ca/2025/03/19/new-report-shows-speculative-oil-markets-drove-inflation-crisis-and-its-poised-to-happen-again/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jim Stanford]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Mar 2025 23:21:41 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Environment & Work]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macroeconomics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://centreforfuturework.ca/?p=2818</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>A new report from the Centre for Future Work reveals that financial speculation in global oil markets — not supply shortages or carbon pricing — was the primary driver of Canada’s inflation surge in 2022. The report, Counting the Costs, finds that inflated oil and gas prices, passed directly and indirectly to Canadian consumers and businesses, cost each household an average of $12,000 over three years.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2025/03/19/new-report-shows-speculative-oil-markets-drove-inflation-crisis-and-its-poised-to-happen-again/">New Report Shows Speculative Oil Markets Drove Inflation Crisis — And It’s Poised to Happen Again</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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									<p style="font-weight: 400;">A new report from the Centre for Future Work reveals that financial speculation in global oil markets — not supply shortages or carbon pricing — was the primary driver of Canada’s inflation surge in 2022. The report, <em>Counting the Costs</em>, finds that inflated oil and gas prices, passed directly and indirectly to Canadian consumers and businesses, cost each household an average of $12,000 over three years.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Furthermore, the report warns that without urgent action, this will happen again, especially as geopolitical instability — like Donald Trump’s erratic threats of tariffs — creates the conditions for another speculative oil price surge.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">The report proposes three policy recommendations to prevent a similar macroeconomic shock in the future from volatile futures markets:</p><ol style="font-weight: 400;"><li>Insulate Canadian fossil fuel prices from the gyrations of financialized futures markets.</li><li>Strengthen royalty regimes and collect excess profits taxes when oil and gas companies profit from future price spikes, redistributed to compensate consumers for extra costs.</li><li>Accelerate energy conservation and the transition to renewable energy systems (which are not in the thrall of futures market speculation).</li></ol><p style="font-weight: 400;">This report is the first publication from a new project, <em><a href="https://www.falseprofits.ca/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">False Profits</a></em>, hosted at the Centre for Future Work. The project will investigate how fossil fuel prices and profits have contributed to affordability challenges and economic insecurity for Canadians.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Please see the full report, <em><strong><a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/FalseProfits-March2025-Counting-the-Costs.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Counting the Costs—Impacts of the 2022 Oil Price Shock for Canadian Consumers and Workers</a></strong></em>, by Jim Stanford and Erin Weir.</p>								</div>
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		<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2025/03/19/new-report-shows-speculative-oil-markets-drove-inflation-crisis-and-its-poised-to-happen-again/">New Report Shows Speculative Oil Markets Drove Inflation Crisis — And It’s Poised to Happen Again</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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		<title>High-Tech Price-Fixing</title>
		<link>https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/12/02/high-tech-price-fixing/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jim Stanford]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Dec 2024 20:16:10 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Technology]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://centreforfuturework.ca/?p=2640</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>One worrisome feature of recent bursts of inflation has been the role of automated price-fixing technologies in pushing up prices across entire industries. Companies use special programs to search out the prices being charged by competitors, and detect changes in demand. These algorithms can then adjust prices quickly, at the level judged to be the highest the market will bear.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/12/02/high-tech-price-fixing/">High-Tech Price-Fixing</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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									<p style="font-weight: 400;">One worrisome feature of recent bursts of inflation has been the role of automated price-fixing technologies in pushing up prices across entire industries. Companies use special programs to search out the prices being charged by competitors, and detect changes in demand. These algorithms can then adjust prices quickly, at the level judged to be the highest the market will bear.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">This process leads to faster transmission of price shocks (such as those resulting from supply chain disruptions, energy price changes, or major crises like the COVID pandemic). And with companies across a sector relying on similar technologies, it can amount to a form of automated price-fixing.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford explored this threat to competitive pricing practices in a recent commentary, originally published in the <a href="https://www.thestar.com/business/opinion/from-a-taylor-swift-hotel-triple-up-to-rideshare-surges-how-algorithms-are-driving-high/article_5451d0a4-9b94-11ef-bbe2-6b1af497a6f3.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em>Toronto Star</em></a>:</p>								</div>
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					<h3 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">How algorithms are driving high-tech price-fixing</h3>				</div>
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					<h6 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">by Jim Stanford</h6>				</div>
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									<p style="font-weight: 400;">It was certainly bad timing for me to arrange a business trip to Toronto on November 15, just as Taylor Swift kicks off her six-show run at the Rogers Centre.</p><p><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-2642" src="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/TSwift.webp" alt="" width="1350" height="900" srcset="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/TSwift.webp 1350w, https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/TSwift-300x200.jpg 300w, https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/TSwift-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/TSwift-768x512.jpg 768w, https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/TSwift-1140x760.jpg 1140w" sizes="(max-width: 1350px) 100vw, 1350px" /></p><p style="font-weight: 400;">My usual mid-range hotel room tripled in price (to $900 per night). Worse yet, prices for virtually every comparable hotel within 25 km of downtown also tripled, to around $900.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">I’m not surprised hotels would exploit a spike in demand to soak customers and pad their profits. After all, that’s capitalism.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">But the uniformity and universality of this price-gouging is something new. It’s almost as if all hoteliers in town got together and agreed to triple their rates while Taylor’s in town.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">That would be illegal, of course. But in effect, that’s exactly what happened – thanks to new high-tech algorithms that instantly adjust prices in response to fluctuations in demand, supply, or information.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Hotels were early adopters of new strategies variously called algorithmic pricing, dynamic pricing, or surge pricing. They use big data – on everything from economic trends, special events, competitors’ prices, weather, and even individuals’ buying habits – to automatically fix prices at the highest level (in the algorithm’s judgment) that consumers can bear.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">If all market participants apply algorithms that scrape the same data and apply the same AI logic, then this amounts to high-tech price-fixing. There are no secret memos or off-the-record conversations between corporate executives. As we know, such explicit evidence of collusion is hard to find (Canada’s infamous <a href="https://www.thestar.com/business/loblaw-george-weston-to-pay-half-a-billion-for-bread-price-fixing-scheme-in-largest/article_9c8d61a2-4a96-11ef-9aba-1b747ecf9a8f.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bread price scandal</a> being a rare exception).</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Now businesses leave all the dirty work up to machines. Where price-fixing is concerned, there’s an app for that. Canada’s lax competition laws, already sadly inadequate to prevent price-fixing and cartels, don’t stand a chance against ubiquitous and instantaneous algorithms.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Algorithmic pricing was pioneered in travel and airlines, where firms constantly strive to match available capacity to consumer demand, at the highest possible price. It is now commonplace in many other industries, from <a href="https://breachmedia.ca/canadian-mega-landlord-ai-pricing-scheme-hikes-rents/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rental apartments</a> to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/amazon-used-algorithm-essentially-raise-prices-rcna123410" target="_blank" rel="noopener">e-commerce</a> to <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-agri-stats-operating-extensive-information-exchanges-among-meat" target="_blank" rel="noopener">food manufacturing</a> and <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kroger-comes-under-fire-electronic-100512474.html?guccounter=1&amp;guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&amp;guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIziWvEHXmaB-6ul2CJZUyIPuMRGR5s_vtA7XUyjWQ95iDBTT2mRUjQqiZe9vbdLXRR8HCBVAwKk7f9c0F0kFhDoEOba3PrgSo6VurWg9xtTTEkoCeG0jQdWRUyuS1IZGy4NGGBAabjle-9XOCaJ7HtSVTr_kw-xAd5OEE3hDLAU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">supermarkets</a>.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">This technology can even set individualized prices, based on personal data (from past purchases, demographic characteristics, social media posts, and more) that reveals each consumer’s willingness to pay.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Platform businesses like Uber apply this strategy <a href="https://www.thestar.com/business/drivers-worry-uber-s-new-pricing-algorithm-will-hike-fares-for-riders-while-reducing-their/article_43001daa-8592-11ef-b757-3fab1576058b.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">in two directions</a> at once. They use algorithms to customize pay for each driver (based on the degree of desperation they revealed by accepting previous jobs), rather than using a standard formula based on time and distance travelled. And they apply mirror-image strategies to maximize the price paid by each customer (based on fluctuating supply and demand conditions, past consumer behaviour, and other data).</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Drivers can’t predict what they’ll earn; consumers don’t know what they’ll pay. But Uber is sure to pocket the biggest possible slice of each transaction. Indeed, Uber’s margin on total revenues has <a href="https://www.computerweekly.com/news/366570421/Uber-CEO-admits-pricing-algorithm-uses-behavioural-patterns" target="_blank" rel="noopener">grown substantially</a> since it began applying algorithmic pricing.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Consumers can no longer have confidence about the “going price” for any product or service: it all depends on what the algorithms dictate on any particular day. This confusion facilitates rip-offs.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Indeed, instantaneous algorithmic coordination of prices across firms clearly amplified the inflationary pressures that arose after COVID lockdowns. Using big data and AI to quickly identify and exploit supply shortages and pent-up consumer demand, firms could hike prices faster – confident their competitors (using the same algorithms) would follow suit.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">That’s why <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/06/22/new-data-on-link-between-profits-and-inflation/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">corporate profits tracked inflation</a> so closely: profits in Canada reached their highest share of GDP ever in 2022, just as inflation peaked at 8%. Both profits and inflation have come down since.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">U.S. regulators have started to respond to the challenges of algorithmic pricing. The Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission have launched several lawsuits against companies for <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/business-guidance/blog/2024/03/price-fixing-algorithm-still-price-fixing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">algorithmic price-fixing</a>. And the U.S. Federal Reserve <a href="https://fortune.com/2023/01/06/fed-inflation-interest-rate-hikes-surge-pricing-uber-neel-kashkari/?utm_medium=social&amp;xid=soc_socialflow_twitter_FORTUNE&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_campaign=fortunemagazine&amp;utm_content=later-32160752" target="_blank" rel="noopener">acknowledges</a> that algorithmic pricing practices worsened the outbreak of inflation in 2022.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Unfortunately, neither the Competition Bureau nor the Bank of Canada have yet come to grips with the risks to price stability and basic fairness posed by these profit-maximizing algorithms. To bring down prices now, and prevent future algorithmic-driven surges in inflation (and hence interest rates), we need our regulators to rise to this new challenge, and hold corporations to account.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">They should heed Taylor Swift’s advice: “Never be so polite you forget your power.”</p>								</div>
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		<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/12/02/high-tech-price-fixing/">High-Tech Price-Fixing</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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		<title>Explainer Video on Corporate Power and Profit-Led Inflation</title>
		<link>https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/09/11/explainer-video-on-corporate-power-and-profit-led-inflation/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jim Stanford]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Sep 2024 02:34:03 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macroeconomics]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://centreforfuturework.ca/?p=2571</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford is featured in a new 6-minute video, produced by the Broadbent Institute, discussing the role of corporate price hikes in post-pandemic inflation.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/09/11/explainer-video-on-corporate-power-and-profit-led-inflation/">Explainer Video on Corporate Power and Profit-Led Inflation</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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									<p style="font-weight: 400;">Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford is featured in a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_G0CC-zddm0">new 6-minute video</a>, produced by the Broadbent Institute, discussing the role of corporate price hikes in post-pandemic inflation.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">He explains how companies in certain strategic sectors (including energy, manufacturing, logistics and wholesale trade, and housing) took advantage of the disruptions and uncertainty of the pandemic to push up prices well beyond actual costs of production.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">The result was the beginning of an inflationary cycle. Unfortunately, workers were victimized twice by this process: first by unduly high prices for essential goods and services, and then again by the impacts of high interest rates which were the Bank of Canada’s only response to this inflation.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">The video was produced for the Broadbent Institute’s <a href="https://perspectivesjournal.ca/category/video/progressive-political-economy/">Progressive Political Economy series</a>, and can be <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_G0CC-zddm0">viewed here</a>.</p>								</div>
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		<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/09/11/explainer-video-on-corporate-power-and-profit-led-inflation/">Explainer Video on Corporate Power and Profit-Led Inflation</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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		<title>Regulating Prices Not Such a Crazy Idea</title>
		<link>https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/08/25/regulating-prices-not-such-a-crazy-idea/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jim Stanford]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Aug 2024 12:00:12 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macroeconomics]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://centreforfuturework.ca/?p=2565</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Kamala Harris’s entry into the U.S. presidential campaign has had a dramatic impact on political discourse there – not just in the opinion polls, but in policy thinking, as well. For example, in her recently-unveiled economic platform she advocates new federal laws against price-gouging, to limit the power of private businesses to unreasonably jack up prices for groceries and other essentials...</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/08/25/regulating-prices-not-such-a-crazy-idea/">Regulating Prices Not Such a Crazy Idea</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[		<div data-elementor-type="wp-post" data-elementor-id="2565" class="elementor elementor-2565">
						<section class="elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-2f0966f elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default wpr-particle-no wpr-jarallax-no wpr-parallax-no wpr-sticky-section-no wpr-equal-height-no" data-id="2f0966f" data-element_type="section" data-e-type="section">
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									<p>Kamala Harris’s entry into the U.S. presidential campaign has had a dramatic impact on political discourse there – not just in the opinion polls, but in policy thinking, as well. For example, in her recently-unveiled economic platform she advocates new federal laws against price-gouging, to limit the power of private businesses to unreasonably jack up prices for groceries and other essentials during emergencies or disruptions (such as the COVID pandemic).</p><p>Harris’s pledge has led to renewed attention on the idea of price regulations as a potential measure in combatting inflation.</p><p>Here is a longer version of an article by Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford, originally published in the <a href="https://www.thestar.com/business/opinion/kamala-harris-would-bring-in-price-caps-to-fight-corporate-gouging-it-could-work-here/article_4f77fd36-5e51-11ef-b4a6-17ae9126588f.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><i>Toronto Star</i></a>, discussing the relevance of Harris’s proposal for Canada.</p><p><b>Kamala Harris Would Bring in Price Caps to Fight Corporate Gouging — It Could Work Here Too</b></p><p>By Jim Stanford</p><p>As economies around the world grappled with inflation after the pandemic, one idea has spurred both interest and controversy. Prices for some essential goods rose far faster in 2021 and 2022 than their costs of production, as companies fattened profits to their <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2022/12/02/fifteen-super-profitable-industries-are-driving-canadian-inflation/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">highest level in history</a>. That was the leading edge of economy-wide inflation.</p><p>The traditional medicine for this problem is to forcibly slow the whole economy with high interest rates. But that further punishes the victims of this profit-led inflation. Could government instead use pre-emptive price caps on strategic commodities to prevent those shocks from spreading into economy-wide inflation?</p><p>The idea has been <a href="https://www.thestar.com/business/opinion/did-corporate-price-gouging-help-fuel-high-inflation-meet-the-controversial-economist-who-says-it/article_e8196bc2-1844-11ef-8976-ebae91673520.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">debated</a> for years. Now, Kamala Harris’s surging presidential campaign has seized on it. <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/price-gouging-vp-harris-proposing-ban-112907461" target="_blank" rel="noopener">She pledged last week</a> to strengthen existing U.S. laws against price-gouging, especially for groceries.</p><p>At least <a href="https://www.findlaw.com/consumer/consumer-transactions/price-gouging-laws-by-state.html?utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=sendto_newslettertest_business&amp;stream=top#_ga=2.38496100.676389784.1724281271-785607112.1724281271" target="_blank" rel="noopener">38 different American states</a> already have laws prohibiting price-gouging, especially during emergencies or natural disasters. These laws typically define price-gouging as large increases in prices (10% or more) that cannot be justified by higher costs. The State of New York used these laws against three companies that jacked up prices for hand sanitizer by up to 400% during the initial COVID-19 outbreak. The firms were <a href="https://ag.ny.gov/press-release/2020/attorney-general-james-stops-three-amazon-sellers-price-gouging-hand-sanitizer#:~:text=d%252Fb%252Fa%2520Supreme%2520Suppliers,hand%2520sanitizer%2520during%2520the%2520pandemic." target="_blank" rel="noopener">levied fines</a> totaling $52,000 (U.S.), and had to reimburse customers for the excess charges.</p><p>The effectiveness of state-level anti-gouging measures can be undermined by firms conducting cross-border sales, and Harris’s proposal seems aimed at closing that loophole with new federal powers – and clarifying their application to staple products like groceries. Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren has <a href="https://www.warren.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/warren-baldwin-casey-schakowsky-reintroduce-legislation-to-crack-down-on-price-gouging-by-giant-corporations" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposed legislation</a> to ban price-gouging nation-wide in any industry, by firms with annual sales over $100 million (U.S.).</p><p>Several Canadian provinces have <a href="https://www.competitionchronicle.com/2020/07/price-gouging-prohibitions-across-canada/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">similar laws</a>. Ontario’s broad <a href="https://www.ola.org/en/legislative-business/bills/parliament-37/session-3/bill-102" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Anti-Price-Gouging Act</a>, for example, prohibits companies from raising prices for essential goods during an emergency, above what they were before the emergency, unless justified by their own higher costs. <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/businessman-defiant-after-alberta-accuses-him-of-selling-hand-sanitizer-at-200-per-cent-markup/article_37131702-58c9-53b4-b062-0300b1b288be.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">One firm in Alberta was even charged</a> under that province’s laws, for excess price hikes on sanitation supplies during pandemic lockdowns.</p><p>Price regulation has been ridiculed by conventional economists as a return to Soviet style central planning, sure to cause a breakdown of the market economy. <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/08/16/harris-lower-grocery-prices-trump-brands-policy-communist/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Donald Trump claimed</a> Harris’s proposals would turn America into Venezuela. But ignore the gotcha politics, and price regulation is in fact a <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/strategic-price-controls-warranted-to-fight-inflation-by-james-k-galbraith-2022-01?barrier=accesspaylog" target="_blank" rel="noopener">normal and accepted element</a> of economic policy.</p><p>Indeed, the potential scope of price regulation in controlling inflation goes beyond just preventing excess price hikes during an immediate emergency. It plays a broader role in preventing profit-seeking businesses from exploiting any competitive advantage beyond reasonable grounds. It’s a normal element in the repertoire of macroeconomic policy.</p><p>Here in Canada, the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh has <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/federal-ndp-want-a-price-cap-on-grocery-store-staples-liberals-say-it-wont-work/article_797eb14b-5806-5a8f-b299-f6ef209b47da.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">called for price caps</a> on essential foodstuffs. Meanwhile, in other countries (including <a href="https://www.thebanker.com/Why-is-inflation-so-low-in-Spain-1692085700" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Spain</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/09/frances-food-industry-pledges-to-cut-prices-government-pressure" target="_blank" rel="noopener">France</a>, and the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58090533" target="_blank" rel="noopener">U.K.</a>), price controls have been established for food, housing, energy and other strategic commodities to help reduce inflation.</p><p>We already use price regulations in many areas of Canada’s economy.</p><p>For example, energy utilities are usually subject to price regulation, to prevent them from abusing their natural monopoly power. When those regulations are strong (especially when backed with public ownership of the system), undue price hikes can be prevented.</p><p>In B.C., Manitoba, and Quebec, strong regulation and public ownership held electricity price increases to just 7-10% over the last five years. In Alberta’s wild west electricity market (privatized and largely deregulated), prices soared 45% in the same time.</p><p>The Atlantic provinces even <a href="https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/market-snapshots/2017/market-snapshot-understanding-regulation-gasoline-prices-in-atlantic-canada.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">regulate gasoline prices</a>, on the basis of allowed mark-ups over international crude oil prices. This doesn’t fully prevent energy price shocks (as occurred after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine), but it moderates them.</p><p>Six provinces have <a href="https://housingrightscanada.com/resources/rent-control-policies-across-canada/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rent controls</a> that limit how much landlords can raise rents (at least for existing tenants). Again, that doesn’t single-handedly fix the housing crisis – but it protects long-term tenants and reduces inflation.</p><p>Meanwhile, the federal government regulates certain pharmaceutical prices under Canada’s patent laws. This system isn’t perfect, and the drug-makers hate it. But it helped hold average price increases for prescription medicines to just 5% since 2019 (compared to the 18% rise in overall consumer prices).</p><p>Prices for other public services are also directly set by government, and can help reduce inflation. Average urban transit fares, for example, increased just 9% over the last five years, half the pace of overall inflation.</p><p>Child care is an outstanding example of how government pricing policy can reduce inflation. Average child care fees have fallen 25% since 2019, thanks mostly to the new <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social-development/campaigns/child-care.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">federal child care program</a>, which is moving toward $10-per-day services. Those lower fees have measurably reduced the consumer price index.</p><p>In short, price regulations are not a bizarre, untested idea. They’re already in place, and already working.</p><p>Even the Bank of Canada acknowledges the importance of price regulations in moderating inflation. Its <a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/mpr-2024-07-24.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">research</a> shows that what it calls “regulation-affected services” (including sectors like communications, whose prices are subject to government oversight) have consistently dampened inflation since the COVID pandemic. They constitute over 8% of all consumer spending. Their prices have increased 2 to 4 percentage points less than expected, slower than any other sector of the economy.</p><p>Yes, price regulations must be carefully designed and enforced. They are not a magic bullet to single-handedly cure inflation. They are just one tool in the overall anti-inflation toolbox.</p><p>But given that the global economy will surely face <a href="https://theideasletter.substack.com/p/disaster-capitalism-revisited" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more inflationary shocks</a> in the future (from war in the Mideast, climate disasters, or future health crises), it’s a tool that should be kept at the ready. In times of trouble, quickly short-circuiting the inflationary impulse arising from undue profit-seeking is much preferable to imposing mass suffering through economy-wide austerity.</p>								</div>
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		<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/08/25/regulating-prices-not-such-a-crazy-idea/">Regulating Prices Not Such a Crazy Idea</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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		<title>New Data on Link Between Profits and Inflation</title>
		<link>https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/06/22/new-data-on-link-between-profits-and-inflation/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jim Stanford]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 23 Jun 2024 06:21:02 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macroeconomics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wages]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://centreforfuturework.ca/?p=2453</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Consumer price inflation has decelerated in Canada in the last year, as rapidly as it accelerated in the 2021-2022 period (sparking high interest rates which in turn caused a painful economic slowdown). At last reading (for April 2024), year-over-year CPI inflation had slowed to 2.7% (down from 8% less than two years earlier). That’s within the Bank of Canada’s target range (2% plus or minus a cushion of 1%). And low enough that the Bank cut its policy rate for the first time in this cycle in June.<br />
Many credit the Bank of Canada’s tough monetary medicine for this quick slowdown in inflation. But that assumes that the initial driving force of inflation was too much spending power in the hands of average Canadians.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/06/22/new-data-on-link-between-profits-and-inflation/">New Data on Link Between Profits and Inflation</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[		<div data-elementor-type="wp-post" data-elementor-id="2453" class="elementor elementor-2453">
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									<p>The following commentary is based on a presentation, titled <b>Distributional Conflict and Inflation: Data, Theory, and Outcomes</b>, presented by Jim Stanford at the recent meetings of the Canadian Economics Association at Toronto Metropolitan University in May 2024. The full presentation is <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Stanford-for-CEA-May2024.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">available here</a>. The presentation was part of a panel on the role of profits in recent inflation, organized by the Progressive Economics Forum.</p>								</div>
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					<h6 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">By Jim Stanford</h6>				</div>
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									<p>Consumer price inflation has decelerated in Canada in the last year, as rapidly as it accelerated in the 2021-2022 period (sparking high interest rates which in turn caused a painful economic slowdown). At last reading (for April 2024), year-over-year CPI inflation had slowed to 2.7% (down from 8% less than two years earlier). That’s within the Bank of Canada’s target range (2% plus or minus a cushion of 1%). And low enough that the Bank cut its policy rate for the first time in this cycle in June.</p><p>Many credit the Bank of Canada’s tough monetary medicine for this quick slowdown in inflation. But that assumes that the initial driving force of inflation was too much spending power in the hands of average Canadians. High interest rates, by sucking tens of billions of dollars of purchasing power out of households with debt (like mortgages), reduce spending power and hence (in that theory) solve inflation that resulted from assumed ‘excess demand’.</p>								</div>
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															<img decoding="async" width="802" height="451" src="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/UnitCostsAndInflation.webp" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-2455" alt="Unit Costs and Inflation line graph" srcset="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/UnitCostsAndInflation.webp 802w, https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/UnitCostsAndInflation-300x169.jpg 300w, https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/UnitCostsAndInflation-768x432.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 802px) 100vw, 802px" />															</div>
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									<p>However, empirical evidence suggests that other factors drove that dramatic but ultimately temporary acceleration in inflation, and hence high interest rates (and the financial challenges they have caused for millions of Canadians) might have been neither appropriate nor necessary to bring inflation down.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>Both the rise and fall of inflation have been closely correlated with unusual trends in corporate profits in Canada (see figure).</p><p>Businesses took advantage of the unique circumstances of the post-lockdown economic re-opening (including disrupted global supply chains, shortages of many strategic commodities, temporary shifts in consumer demand, and a global oil price shock in 2022) to increase their prices far higher than costs, adding substantially to inflation. After mid-2022, when supply conditions began to normalize, corporate profits normalized as well – and so did inflation. There is a very strong correlation between profits per unit of real output in Canada (unit profit cost) and the rate of inflation, but no apparent correlation between unit labour costs (typically held up as the culprit for higher costs and prices) and inflation.</p><p>Canadian workers have been ambitious and largely (but not universally) successful in recuperating the real value of their wages, damaged by the initial surge of inflation in 2021 and 2022. Demands for higher wages, backed up with a surge in union organizing and work stoppages, contributed to a modest acceleration in wage growth. By 2023 wages were growing at 4-5% per year (depending on which measure is used), faster than inflation. As a result, real wages have started to grow again – and there is no sign of that trend stopping yet, despite high interest rates, higher unemployment, and a slowing economy.</p>								</div>
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															<img decoding="async" width="802" height="452" src="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/RestorationFactorShares.webp" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-2454" alt="Restoration of Factor Shares bar graph" srcset="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/RestorationFactorShares.webp 802w, https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/RestorationFactorShares-300x169.jpg 300w, https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/RestorationFactorShares-768x433.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 802px) 100vw, 802px" />															</div>
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				<section class="elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-9dd3719 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default wpr-particle-no wpr-jarallax-no wpr-parallax-no wpr-sticky-section-no wpr-equal-height-no" data-id="9dd3719" data-element_type="section" data-e-type="section">
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									<p>Indeed, by end-2023, the shift in national income distribution away from wages (and other factor incomes) toward corporate profits that resulted from the burst of post-pandemic profit-led inflation had been largely reversed (see figure). Measured as a share of nominal GDP, workers won back (between mid-2022 and end-2023) almost all of the slice of the economic pie they had lost in the initial inflationary outbreak. The decline in corporate profits (in both absolute terms, and as a share of GDP) since mid-2022 has also largely reversed the increase in the profit share that occurred in the first two years of the pandemic.</p><p>This surprisingly quick restoration of factor shares of GDP, alongside the rapid deceleration of inflation in the last two years, attests to the unique and ultimately temporary circumstances that sparked post-COVID inflation (and corresponding distributional shifts). It is also testament to the labour market institutions (including real minimum wage increases in most provinces, sustained trade union density, and an upsurge in work stoppages) that have backed up workers’ defense of their real wages.</p><p>Things are not fully back to ‘normal’. <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/02/27/canadian-corporate-profits-remain-elevated-despite-economic-slowdown/">Profit margins remain elevated</a> as a share of total revenues. And real wages in some parts of the economy have still been damaged – especially in education and other public services, where intrusive wage suppression efforts by some governments made recent real wage losses all the worse. Real wages in Alberta (where the government has not increased the minimum wage for six years) have fallen <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/05/18/albertas-disappearing-advantage-for-workers/">faster than any other province</a>. Meanwhile, the macroeconomy continues to stagger under the weight of high interest rates: a monetary policy response that did not address the true causes of post-pandemic inflation, but nevertheless suppressed spending power and aggregate demand.</p><p>However, the most recent data suggests that Canada’s structural income distribution is relatively robust. The rapid repair of real wages, and rapid restoration of pre-pandemic factor shares, indicates that workers have power to defend their economic interests – and they have successfully used it. While there’s still work to do to fully repair real wages, that’s something to celebrate.</p>								</div>
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		<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/06/22/new-data-on-link-between-profits-and-inflation/">New Data on Link Between Profits and Inflation</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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		<title>Documentary Shines Light on Excessive Food Prices in Canada</title>
		<link>https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/04/04/documentary-shines-light-on-excessive-food-prices-in-canada/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jim Stanford]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Apr 2024 18:28:43 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://centreforfuturework.ca/?p=2379</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Rapidly rising food prices have been a major component of the cost-of-living crisis affecting Canadian households in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic. Food price inflation was significantly faster than overall inflation in 2022 and 2023.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/04/04/documentary-shines-light-on-excessive-food-prices-in-canada/">Documentary Shines Light on Excessive Food Prices in Canada</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[		<div data-elementor-type="wp-post" data-elementor-id="2379" class="elementor elementor-2379">
						<section class="elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-10edba6 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default wpr-particle-no wpr-jarallax-no wpr-parallax-no wpr-sticky-section-no wpr-equal-height-no" data-id="10edba6" data-element_type="section" data-e-type="section">
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									<p>Rapidly rising food prices have been a major component of the cost-of-living crisis affecting Canadian households in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic. Food price inflation was significantly faster than overall inflation in 2022 and 2023. Food inflation has slowed more recently (to 2.4% year-over-year by March 2024, the slowest in 3 years), but food affordability is a major concern.</p><p>Low-income households spend a much larger share of their total income on food than higher-income families: the lowest-income quintile of households spends 12.8% of total spending on groceries, versus just 6.5% for the highest-income quintile (data from Statistics Canada Table 11-10-0223-01). High food prices thus impose a particular burden on low- and middle-income households. Similar inequalities are visible across the various regions of Canada – none more so than in Canada’s north, where limited competition and very high transportation costs contribute to shocking grocery prices.</p><p>These factors were explored recently in a powerful documentary, “<b>Who’s Minding the Store?</b>”, produced by CBC’s flagship investigative program, <i>The Fifth Estate</i>. Led by veteran correspondent Steven d’Souza, the documentary covered several dimensions of the food price crisis. Working in partnership with reporters with the Aboriginal Peoples Television Network (APTN), the program revealed shocking details of food-price-gouging in isolated northern communities. It also featured detailed discussion with Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford on the economic and financial forces driving food prices – including the record-high profits being captured by the large grocery chains that dominate Canadian food retailing.</p>								</div>
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																<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zuz5SgcHnrQ" target="_blank">
							<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="960" height="540" src="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/The-Fifth-Estate-Food-Prices-1024x576.jpg" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-2380" alt="Cover image for link to Fifth Estate episode" srcset="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/The-Fifth-Estate-Food-Prices-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/The-Fifth-Estate-Food-Prices-300x169.jpg 300w, https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/The-Fifth-Estate-Food-Prices-768x432.jpg 768w, https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/The-Fifth-Estate-Food-Prices-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/The-Fifth-Estate-Food-Prices-2048x1152.jpg 2048w, https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/The-Fifth-Estate-Food-Prices-1140x641.jpg 1140w, https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/The-Fifth-Estate-Food-Prices.webp 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" />								</a>
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									<p>The full documentary can be viewed at: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zuz5SgcHnrQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zuz5SgcHnrQ</a>.</p><p>A summary of the film’s main findings is published at: <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/rising-food-prices-canada-north-1.7122481" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/rising-food-prices-canada-north-1.7122481</a>.</p><p>For the latest on grocery store profits (which set a new all-time record in 2023, despite weakening sales and the slowdown in inflation), see the Centre for Future Work’s <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/02/27/canadian-corporate-profits-remain-elevated-despite-economic-slowdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recent report on the resilience of corporate profits</a> in Canada in 2023.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>								</div>
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		<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/04/04/documentary-shines-light-on-excessive-food-prices-in-canada/">Documentary Shines Light on Excessive Food Prices in Canada</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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		<title>Canadian Corporate Profits Remain Elevated Despite Economic Slowdown</title>
		<link>https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/02/27/canadian-corporate-profits-remain-elevated-despite-economic-slowdown/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jim Stanford]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Feb 2024 14:56:27 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macroeconomics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://centreforfuturework.ca/?p=2332</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Statistics Canada has released year-end data on corporate financial performance for 2023. The new data confirm that corporate profits remain elevated relative to pre-COVID norms, despite the stalling of economic growth in 2023, largely due to weak consumer demand conditions caused by two years of high interest rates.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/02/27/canadian-corporate-profits-remain-elevated-despite-economic-slowdown/">Canadian Corporate Profits Remain Elevated Despite Economic Slowdown</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[		<div data-elementor-type="wp-post" data-elementor-id="2332" class="elementor elementor-2332">
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									<p style="font-weight: 400;">Statistics Canada has released year-end data on corporate financial performance for 2023. <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Resilience-of-Profits-Canada-end-2023.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The new data confirm</a> that corporate profits remain elevated relative to pre-COVID norms, despite the stalling of economic growth in 2023, largely due to weak consumer demand conditions caused by two years of high interest rates. After-tax corporate profits across the financial and non-financial sectors of the economy totaled $577 billion for the year. That was down just 3% from all-time record profits booked by corporate Canada in 2022 – the same year inflation peaked at over 8%. The moderation in profits (both in absolute dollars and as a share of GDP) last  year contributed to the rapid easing of inflationary pressures. But profits remain unusually high compared to pre-pandemic years: in absolute dollars, as a share of total business revenue, and relative to GDP. This indicates that corporations are continuing to profit from supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, and other pandemic after-shocks. These excess profits remain a key factor in the stubborn inflation which continues to roil Canada’s macroeconomy.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Please read the <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Resilience-of-Profits-Canada-end-2023.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">full 8-page analysis</a> by Jim Stanford, Director of the Centre for Future Work.</p>								</div>
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		<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/02/27/canadian-corporate-profits-remain-elevated-despite-economic-slowdown/">Canadian Corporate Profits Remain Elevated Despite Economic Slowdown</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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		<title>Real Wages are Recovering… and That’s Good News!</title>
		<link>https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/01/21/real-wages-are-recovering-and-thats-good-news/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jim Stanford]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Jan 2024 03:27:48 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trade Unions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wages]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://centreforfuturework.ca/?p=2313</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The beginning of 2024 brought some good labour market news for a change: average real wages in Canada increased in 2023, reversing some of the damage from post-COVID inflation.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/01/21/real-wages-are-recovering-and-thats-good-news/">Real Wages are Recovering… and That’s Good News!</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[		<div data-elementor-type="wp-post" data-elementor-id="2313" class="elementor elementor-2313">
						<section class="elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-6652bd8 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default wpr-particle-no wpr-jarallax-no wpr-parallax-no wpr-sticky-section-no wpr-equal-height-no" data-id="6652bd8" data-element_type="section" data-e-type="section">
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									<p>The beginning of 2024 brought some good labour market news for a change: average real wages in Canada increased in 2023, reversing some of the damage from post-COVID inflation. After two years of lagging well behind inflation, wage growth picked up in 2023, reaching almost 5% for the year. Combined with a marked slowdown in inflation (to just under 4% for the year), that produced a 1% increase in the real purchasing power of average wages.</p>								</div>
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				<section class="elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-62e0218 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default wpr-particle-no wpr-jarallax-no wpr-parallax-no wpr-sticky-section-no wpr-equal-height-no" data-id="62e0218" data-element_type="section" data-e-type="section">
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						<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-34f538f elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor" data-id="34f538f" data-element_type="widget" data-e-type="widget" data-widget_type="text-editor.default">
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									<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-2316" src="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/RealHourlyWagesInCanada.jpg" alt="Real Hourly Wages in Canada line graph" width="1422" height="1031" />Real wages are higher than when the pandemic began, and have approximately regained their pre-COVID trend. From 2011 through 2019, real wages grew by slightly less than 1% per year. The 2023 rebound in real wages left them at a point just slightly below where they would have been if the pandemic had not occurred, and real wages had simply continued growing at that 2011-19 pace.</p><p>The temporary spike in wages (both nominal &amp; real) that occurred in 2020 was a composition effect: resulting from the disproportionate loss of lower-wage jobs in the lockdowns (which meant that the average wage for those workers who remained employed seemed higher). That artificial effect was unwound as those low-wage industries reopened after the lockdowns. But then inflation roared to life, and started to further undercut real wages—until 2023.</p><p>It is interesting to note that the median real wage (earned by workers at the exact mid-point of the income distribution) grew faster in 2023: by 2.5%. That implies a slightly narrowing of wage inequality in Canada’s labour market last year, with lower-wage workers getting slightly stronger increases. In the long-run, however, median wages have increased more slowly than average wages, indicating that higher-income workers (including salaried professionals) have received disproportionate gains (thus pulling up average wages faster than median wages).</p><p>The encouraging growth in real incomes for workers in 2023 confirms that the efforts of Canadian workers to protect their purchasing power are having effect. This includes the efforts of unionized workers to offset previous real wage cuts through collective bargaining demands and more frequent strikes. On average, however, real wages grew more slowly for unionized than non-unionized workers – mostly because many union members have not yet had a chance to renegotiate their contracts since the take-of of inflation in 2021 and 2022. As more contracts expire and are renegotiated, we can expect continued challenges in contract talks, as workers strive to both make up for past real wage losses, and protect their real wages against continued expected inflation in the years ahead.</p><p>Moreover, the real gains experienced last year were not universal. Especially in public sector occupations (including education, health care, and public administration), nominal wage gains barely matched even the slower inflation experienced last year. Indeed, in education average real wages fell again in 2023 (by two-thirds of a percentage point). This means that public sector workers continue to suffer from accumulated real wage losses since the pandemic hit, with purchasing power up to 4% lower than it was in 2019.</p><p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-2317" src="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/RealWageChange2019-2023.jpg" alt="Real Wage Change 2019-2023 bar graph" width="1422" height="1030" />Of course, what is good news for (many) workers will be interpreted as a danger sign by employers and the Bank of Canada. There is no evidence that wages caused the outbreak of post-COVID inflation. But this encouraging wage growth will nevertheless be used as an excuse to continue suppressing domestic growth and job-creation, including by keeping interest rates at current high levels for longer. That may tip Canada into an official, ‘technical’ recession (traditionally defined by two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth). But in the Bank of Canada’s view, that is a worthwhile price to pay if it helps to restrain wages and thus restore lower inflation.</p><p>We can expect the complaints about wages, and predictions of imminent but mythical &#8216;wage-price spiral&#8217;, to get louder in the coming months. However, real wages are only catching up to inflation, not causing it, and regaining long-term trends. Workers have a right to expect their real standard of living to improve gradually over time, on the strength of technology, efficiency, and strong labour force participation. Instead of scapegoating workers, macroeconomic and monetary policy should target the true causes of post-COVID inflation—and that clearly has not been labour.</p>								</div>
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		<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/01/21/real-wages-are-recovering-and-thats-good-news/">Real Wages are Recovering… and That’s Good News!</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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		<title>Risks and Uncertainties Facing Canada’s Economy in 2024</title>
		<link>https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/01/08/risks-and-uncertainties-facing-canadas-economy-in-2024/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jim Stanford]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Jan 2024 18:13:10 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macroeconomics]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://centreforfuturework.ca/?p=2300</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Canada’s economy enters the New Year facing a wide range of challenges and uncertainties: high interest rates, stalling economic growth, and rising unemployment. To review the outlook, CBC Radio’s Sunday Magazine, hosted by Piya Chattopadhyay, recently broadcast a full 20-minute interview with Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/01/08/risks-and-uncertainties-facing-canadas-economy-in-2024/">Risks and Uncertainties Facing Canada’s Economy in 2024</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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									<p>Canada’s economy enters the New Year facing a wide range of challenges and uncertainties: high interest rates, stalling economic growth, and rising unemployment. To review the outlook, CBC Radio’s <i>Sunday Magazine</i>, hosted by Piya Chattopadhyay, recently broadcast a full 20-minute interview with Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford. The interview considered:</p><ul><li>The outlook for inflation and interest rates.</li><li>Factors behind the gradual increase in unemployment.</li><li>The growing contrast between the economic trajectory in Canada and the U.S. (which has enjoyed faster growth with equal inflation, but with much larger deficits).<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></li><li>The economic consequences of political instability in the U.S. and elsewhere.</li></ul><p>The full recording of the CBC <i>Sunday Magazine</i> interview is <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-57-the-sunday-magazine/clip/16033606-forecasting-canadas-economic-prospects-2024" target="_blank" rel="noopener">available here.</a></p>								</div>
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																<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-57-the-sunday-magazine/clip/16033606-forecasting-canadas-economic-prospects-2024" target="_blank">
							<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="938" height="675" src="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/CBCSundayMagazine20240107.webp" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-2290" alt="CBC Sunday Magazine for January 7, 2024" srcset="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/CBCSundayMagazine20240107.webp 938w, https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/CBCSundayMagazine20240107-300x216.jpg 300w, https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/CBCSundayMagazine20240107-768x553.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 938px) 100vw, 938px" />								</a>
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		<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/01/08/risks-and-uncertainties-facing-canadas-economy-in-2024/">Risks and Uncertainties Facing Canada’s Economy in 2024</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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		<title>Review of Gas Price Roller-Coaster in 2023 Revealed Important Lessons</title>
		<link>https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/01/03/review-of-gas-price-roller-coaster-in-2023-revealed-important-lessons/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jim Stanford]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Jan 2024 18:11:57 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Environment & Work]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://centreforfuturework.ca/?p=2293</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>As 2023 drew to a close, it wa3s instructive to review the path of gasoline prices (which are the most volatile major component in Canada’s consumer price index) over the year. According to the GasBuddy website, the average price on December 31 was $1.39/litre. That was 5₵ cheaper than at the beginning of 2023. But gas prices followed a long, winding road to get there.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/01/03/review-of-gas-price-roller-coaster-in-2023-revealed-important-lessons/">Review of Gas Price Roller-Coaster in 2023 Revealed Important Lessons</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[		<div data-elementor-type="wp-post" data-elementor-id="2293" class="elementor elementor-2293">
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					<h6 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default"><a href="https://rabble.ca/economy/review-of-gas-price-roller-coaster-in-2023-reveals-important-lessons/" target="_blank">This commentary was originally published at rabble.ca.</a></h6>				</div>
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									<p>As 2023 drew to a close, it wa3s instructive to review the path of gasoline prices (which are the most volatile major component in Canada’s consumer price index) over the year. According to the <a href="https://www.gasbuddy.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GasBuddy website</a>, the average price on December 31 was $1.39/litre. That was 5₵ cheaper than at the beginning of 2023. But gas prices followed a long, winding road to get there.</p>								</div>
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															<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="936" height="526" src="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/gaspricegraph.webp" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-2292" alt="Line graph of 12 month average retail gas price chart" srcset="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/gaspricegraph.webp 936w, https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/gaspricegraph-300x169.jpg 300w, https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/gaspricegraph-768x432.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px" />															</div>
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									<p>Of course, the ups and downs of world oil futures markets are the major reason for this roller-coaster (even for gasoline extracted, refined &amp; consumed here in Canada). What is striking is the irrelevance of Canadian fiscal and climate policies to the path of gas prices over the year.</p><p>The backstop federal carbon price (which applies in provinces not participating with their own carbon rice) rose $15/tonne on April 1. The new federal Clean Fuel Regulation came into effect July 1. Conservatives claimed both would send gasoline costs soaring. But their impact (small for the carbon price, non-existent for the fuel regulation) was swamped by global price turmoil.</p><p>Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and his team tried to exploit both policy moments to farm more rage against virtually anything to do with the federal government. On April 1, <a href="https://twitter.com/PierrePoilievre/status/1642290093317664768" target="_blank" rel="noopener">he warned</a> about a wave of robberies at gas stations across the country, with the culprit stealing 14₵/litre from every customer.</p><p>Likening a policy measure adopted by an elected government and implemented in accordance with the rule of law, to the actions of a gas station stick-up bandit, seems irresponsible&#8230; but sadly it is par for the course these days for Canadian populism.</p><p>Then, on June 30, Mr. Poilievre <a href="https://twitter.com/PierrePoilievre/status/1674936102090833920" target="_blank" rel="noopener">urged Canadians</a> to fill their tanks before the next &#8220;tax hike on gas&#8221; kicked in. (In reality, the Clean Fuel Regulation is not a tax, and no serious analyst expected it to have an impact on current gas prices.)</p><p>Ironically, gas prices in most parts of Canada fell slightly over the subsequent week. Anyone who took Mr. Poilievre&#8217;s financial advice literally, and actually believed they would save money by filling up on June 30, ended up losing a dollar or two. That&#8217;s not as much as the losses incurred by those who followed his <a href="https://rabble.ca/politics/canadian-politics/pierre-poilievres-very-bad-bitcoin-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous advice to buy cryptocurrency</a>. But it&#8217;s a reminder that politicians who muddle personal financial advice with ideological hot takes, are playing with fire.</p><p>Gas prices then fell through the autumn, thanks to lower world oil prices (OPEC+ efforts to cut supply didn&#8217;t succeed), seasonal factors, and gasoline supply trends. That&#8217;s been key to slowing inflation down to 3.1% by November – just as sky-high gas prices in summer 2022 were key to the 8% inflation experienced then.</p><p>Ironically, gas prices are now about 14₵/litre <i>lower</i> than on April 1. Will Mr. Poilievre now tweet his thanks to Mr. Trudeau for reimbursing 14₵/litre to all Canadians gassing up on the New Year’s holiday? That would be no more ridiculous than his claim Trudeau robbed them all on April 1.</p><p>More irony: even though gas prices are lower than a year ago (despite the higher carbon price), federal Climate Action Incentive Payment (CAIP) rebates (paid in 7 provinces without equivalent carbon prices) will grow in 2024, as the federal government reimburses higher proceeds from the carbon price. Details will be announced by the Finance Minister in the spring.</p><p>Provinces with their own carbon pricing systems will largely follow suit. Lower prices and higher rebates sounds like a win-win. Of course, when Mr. Poilievre promises to &#8220;axe the tax&#8221;, he is silent on what that means for CAIP rebates (<a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2022/11/climate-action-incentive-payment-amounts-for-2023-24.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">currently worth</a> up to $1544 for a family of 4).</p><p>Several lessons arise from this review of the gas price roller-coaster during 2023.</p><p>Lesson 1: People tend to blame politicians for hardship caused by private markets and businesses. (I&#8217;ve seen left-wing politicians do it, too, not just Conservatives.) It is convenient to use any problem as a point of attack in political debate. But we should be honest about what&#8217;s causing the hardship.</p><p>High gasoline prices in 2022 mostly resulted from the gyrations of speculative, financialized oil futures markets which overreact to any shocks. Canadian energy policy transmits that turmoil directly to consumers, amplified by unprecedented profit-taking by petroleum corporations (who have booked over $120 billion in net income since the start of 2022 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine).</p><p>This way of managing energy markets is not natural or inevitable, nor does it reflect &#8216;real&#8217; economic forces like production costs, supply and demand, etc. To see how it could be done differently, compare gyrating gas prices to electricity costs in Quebec, Manitoba, &amp; B.C., where a combination of public ownership and strict price regulation has kept electricity prices low – and boringly steady.</p><p>Lesson 2: Conservatives have focused on carbon pricing as their key hot button to exploit in preparing for the next election. But carbon pricing is virtually irrelevant to the genuine cost-of-living challenges facing Canadians. Our review of gas prices in 2023 is just one more piece of evidence supporting this assertion, but there is <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2023/05/08/no-correlation-between-inflation-and-carbon-pricing/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">abundant evidence</a> from many other sources.</p><p>However, that reality won&#8217;t stop populist Conservatives from blaming carbon pricing for any economic or social ailment. Unfortunately, Canadians need to prepare for a New Year filled with unprecedented misinformation. The need for evidence-based research, policy dialogue, and journalism has never been more urgent.</p>								</div>
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		<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/01/03/review-of-gas-price-roller-coaster-in-2023-revealed-important-lessons/">Review of Gas Price Roller-Coaster in 2023 Revealed Important Lessons</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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