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	<title>Inflation Archives - Centre for Future Work</title>
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		<title>Webinar on New Report: A Sequel We Don’t Want</title>
		<link>https://centreforfuturework.ca/2026/06/16/webinar-on-new-report-a-sequel-we-dont-want/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jim Stanford]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Jun 2026 18:35:42 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macroeconomics]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://centreforfuturework.ca/?p=3279</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The Centre for Future Work recently hosted a webinar presenting results from its new report, A Sequel We Don’t Want: What the 2026 Oil Price Shock Will Cost Canadians.</p>
<p>The webinar featured presentations from Jim Stanford (Centre for Future Work Director, and author of the report), Atila Jaffar (Canada Country Manager from 350.org, sponsor of a campaign for an excess profit tax on petroleum companies), and DT Cochrane (Senior Economist at the Canadian Labour Congress).</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2026/06/16/webinar-on-new-report-a-sequel-we-dont-want/">Webinar on New Report: A Sequel We Don’t Want</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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									<p style="font-weight: 400;">The Centre for Future Work recently hosted a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErNIZ8_Szhk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">webinar</a> presenting results from its new report, <em><a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2026/05/17/a-sequel-we-dont-want-what-the-2026-oil-price-shock-will-cost-canadians/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A Sequel We Don’t Want: What the 2026 Oil Price Shock Will Cost Canadians</a></em>.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">The webinar featured presentations from Jim Stanford (Centre for Future Work Director, and author of the report), Atiya Jaffar (Canada Country Manager from <a href="http://350.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">350.org</a>, sponsor of a campaign for an excess profit tax on petroleum companies), and DT Cochrane (Senior Economist at the Canadian Labour Congress).</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">It explains the likely effects of the new global oil price shock on Canadian consumers, inflation, and interest rates. It predicts at least $50 billion in higher direct and indirect costs for consumers (including the flow-through effects of higher oil prices on prices of other products, ranging from transportation to food to housing). It also warned of the possibility of higher interest rates and even slower economic growth.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Please view the entire one-hour webinar on the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErNIZ8_Szhk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Centre’s You Tube channel</a>.</p>								</div>
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		<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2026/06/16/webinar-on-new-report-a-sequel-we-dont-want/">Webinar on New Report: A Sequel We Don’t Want</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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		<title>Oil Price Spike Causing More Trouble for Canada’s Economy</title>
		<link>https://centreforfuturework.ca/2026/06/16/oil-price-spike-causing-more-trouble-for-canadas-economy/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jim Stanford]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Jun 2026 18:29:27 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macroeconomics]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://centreforfuturework.ca/?p=3273</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Centre for Future Work Economist and Director Jim Stanford was recently interviewed on CBC News Channel regarding the outlook for Canada’s economy. He stressed that growth has been near-zero since U.S. president Donald Trump launched his trade war through big tariffs on Canadian exports. He also explained how high oil prices resulting from Trump’s attacks on Iran and the resulting disruption in global oil supplies would affect inflation in Canada, citing findings from the Centre’s recent report on the inflationary impacts of the war.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2026/06/16/oil-price-spike-causing-more-trouble-for-canadas-economy/">Oil Price Spike Causing More Trouble for Canada’s Economy</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[		<div data-elementor-type="wp-post" data-elementor-id="3273" class="elementor elementor-3273">
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									<p style="font-weight: 400;">Centre for Future Work Economist and Director Jim Stanford was recently interviewed on CBC News Channel regarding the outlook for Canada’s economy. He stressed that growth has been near-zero since U.S. president Donald Trump launched his trade war through big tariffs on Canadian exports. He also explained how high oil prices resulting from Trump’s attacks on Iran and the resulting disruption in global oil supplies would affect inflation in Canada, citing findings from the Centre’s <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2026/05/17/a-sequel-we-dont-want-what-the-2026-oil-price-shock-will-cost-canadians/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recent report</a> on the inflationary impacts of the war.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Please see the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/video/9.7218640" target="_blank" rel="noopener">full interview here</a>.</p>								</div>
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		<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2026/06/16/oil-price-spike-causing-more-trouble-for-canadas-economy/">Oil Price Spike Causing More Trouble for Canada’s Economy</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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		<title>A Sequel We Don’t Want: What the 2026 Oil Price Shock Will Cost Canadians.</title>
		<link>https://centreforfuturework.ca/2026/05/17/a-sequel-we-dont-want-what-the-2026-oil-price-shock-will-cost-canadians/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jim Stanford]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 May 2026 06:59:33 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macroeconomics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://centreforfuturework.ca/?p=3238</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The war in the Persian Gulf has caused the biggest disruption in oil supply in world history, and is driving up costs and inflation around the world – including in Canada.<br />
New research from the Centre for Future Work, published through the False Profits project, shows how damaging this latest oil shock will be for affordability and inflation in Canada. It also proposes policies to protect consumers and workers.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2026/05/17/a-sequel-we-dont-want-what-the-2026-oil-price-shock-will-cost-canadians/">A Sequel We Don’t Want: What the 2026 Oil Price Shock Will Cost Canadians.</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[		<div data-elementor-type="wp-post" data-elementor-id="3238" class="elementor elementor-3238">
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									<p style="font-weight: 400;">The war in the Persian Gulf has caused the biggest disruption in oil supply in world history, and is driving up costs and inflation around the world – including in Canada.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/A-Sequel-We-Dont-Want.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">New research</a> from the Centre for Future Work, published through the False Profits project, shows how damaging this latest oil shock will be for affordability and inflation in Canada. It also proposes policies to protect consumers and workers.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">The numbers are grim: The report predicts $50 billion in additional consumer costs over a 12-month period, and inflation jumping to 4.2%, even if the conflict ended and the Strait of Hormuz reopens tomorrow.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">If the Strait remains closed for longer, the impacts on consumers will be much worse. Three months of additional closure would double the hit to Canadian consumers (to $100 billion), and push Canadian inflation to 6.9%.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">The study also estimates the windfall revenue gains flowing to Canada’s petroleum industry from the war. Upstream oil revenue will soar by $65 billion over 12 months, even if the Strait reopens immediately. Under a longer closure, the industry’s revenue would increase by up to $155 billion, reaching almost $400 billion in total over the 12-month period.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">The report advocates measures to stabilize oil prices within Canada (since Canada produces almost three times as much oil as it consumes, and production costs at home are unaffected by the Persian Gulf conflict), redistribute record petroleum profits back to consumers, and accelerate the transition to renewable energy sources.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Please see the full report, <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/A-Sequel-We-Dont-Want.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><strong><em>A Sequel We Don’t Want: What the 2026 Oil Price Shock Will Cost Canadians.</em></strong></a></p>								</div>
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		<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2026/05/17/a-sequel-we-dont-want-what-the-2026-oil-price-shock-will-cost-canadians/">A Sequel We Don’t Want: What the 2026 Oil Price Shock Will Cost Canadians.</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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		<title>CBC Sunday Morning Feature Interview: Trump’s War and the Macroeconomic Outlook</title>
		<link>https://centreforfuturework.ca/2026/04/28/cbc-sunday-morning-feature-interview-trumps-war-and-the-macroeconomic-outlook/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jim Stanford]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Apr 2026 18:44:37 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fiscal Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macroeconomics]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://centreforfuturework.ca/?p=3227</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>In this CBC national radio interview with host Piya Chattopadhyay, Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford discusses the impacts of the war (on top of the disruptions from Trump’s tariff policies) on Canada’s economy, in the lead-up to the federal government’s spring fiscal update.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2026/04/28/cbc-sunday-morning-feature-interview-trumps-war-and-the-macroeconomic-outlook/">CBC Sunday Morning Feature Interview: Trump’s War and the Macroeconomic Outlook</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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									<p style="font-weight: 400;">U.S. President Donald Trump’s war against Iran has unleashed a cavalcade of global economic disruptions. Most severe is the impact of the blockage of shipping through the Straits of Hormuz on worldwide oil prices, and supply chains for other commodities (including natural gas, fertilizer, and chemicals). Even though Canada produces far more oil. Gas, and fertilizer than we use, the resulting price spike has hit us, too – as a result of our policy choice to tie domestic prices (even for our own energy) to that global roller-coaster.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">In this <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/sunday/the-sunday-magazine-april-26-2026-9.7175196" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CBC national radio interview</a> with host Piya Chattopadhyay, Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford discusses the impacts of the war (on top of the disruptions from Trump’s tariff policies) on Canada’s economy, in the lead-up to the federal government’s spring fiscal update.</p>								</div>
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					<h6 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">What the government's policy playbook might mean for your pocketbook.</h6>				</div>
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		<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2026/04/28/cbc-sunday-morning-feature-interview-trumps-war-and-the-macroeconomic-outlook/">CBC Sunday Morning Feature Interview: Trump’s War and the Macroeconomic Outlook</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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		<title>Speculation and Greed Explain the Price of Gasoline, not Supply and Demand</title>
		<link>https://centreforfuturework.ca/2026/04/23/speculation-and-greed-explain-the-price-of-gasoline-not-supply-and-demand/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jim Stanford]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Apr 2026 17:20:23 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://centreforfuturework.ca/?p=3217</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The economic impacts of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran were felt by Canadians within hours of its launch. Prices for gasoline, diesel, and home heating oil (widely used in Atlantic Canada) shot up very quickly. This is both surprising and infuriating—since those products were produced, refined, and delivered long before the war started. Why do consumers have to pay more, given the war had no impact on the cost of production?</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2026/04/23/speculation-and-greed-explain-the-price-of-gasoline-not-supply-and-demand/">Speculation and Greed Explain the Price of Gasoline, not Supply and Demand</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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									<p style="font-weight: 400;">The economic impacts of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran were felt by Canadians within hours of its launch. Prices for gasoline, diesel, and home heating oil (widely used in Atlantic Canada) shot up very quickly. This is both surprising and infuriating—since those products were produced, refined, and delivered long before the war started. Why do consumers have to pay more, given the war had no impact on the cost of production?</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Centre for Future Work director Jim Stanford pursued this question in a commentary <a href="https://www.thestar.com/business/opinion/trumps-war-on-iran-hasnt-altered-canadas-cost-of-making-gas-at-all-so-why/article_4cd48522-31f5-4249-92da-37bbede816c9.html">originally published</a> in the <em>Toronto Star</em>.</p>								</div>
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					<h3 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Policy Choices, not Market Forces, Explain Why We’re Getting Soaked at the Pump… Again</h3>				</div>
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					<h6 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">By Jim Stanford</h6>				</div>
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				<section class="elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-c5c7bca elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default wpr-particle-no wpr-jarallax-no wpr-parallax-no wpr-sticky-section-no wpr-column-slider-no wpr-equal-height-no" data-id="c5c7bca" data-element_type="section" data-e-type="section">
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									<p style="font-weight: 400;">For beleaguered consumers, it’s déjà vu all over again. War breaks out on the other side of the world. Within 24 hours, gasoline prices take off – <a href="https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts">rising up to 50 cents a litre on average</a> across Canada since the war started. Natural gas and heating oil prices will follow, along with costs for anything that uses petroleum intensively (like transportation services, food, and construction).</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">It’ll get worse when the Bank of Canada jumps into the fray with higher interest rates to counteract renewed inflation. Then the victims of oil-fired inflation will be punished again.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">We’ve seen this movie before. Sadly, we haven’t learned its lessons.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine – a country that does not produce significant amounts of oil. World oil prices soared 65% in weeks, propelled unduly by speculative bets placed on financialized futures markets.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Prices subsided by the end of the year, after it became clear world oil supply was unaffected by that war (which still drags on). But the damage was done. The 2022 oil spike was the biggest single cause of the resulting inflation that caused such turmoil around the world.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">In Canada, that surge in oil prices directly accounted for 43% of post-pandemic inflation, which peaked at 8% four months later. The indirect costs were even bigger: including price hikes on energy-intensive products, subsequent higher interest rates, and job losses as high rates chilled the aggregate economy. I have <a href="https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&amp;id=1Usx12QwzPFbkHy8GofcNZDy_7bLRFnqG">estimated</a> that the cumulative toll for Canadian consumers from the 2022 oil price surge exceeded $200 billion over three years – a staggering $12,000 per household.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Now prices are soaring again, following U.S.-Israeli attacks and Iranian counter-attacks. Before banging their heads against the nearest brick wall over the prospect of a painful sequel, consumers should pause to ask two fundamental questions. Why must we pay so much more for oil and gas produced, processed, and consumed right here in Canada, with no connection to the Middle East whatsoever? And who benefits from this outcome?</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">The gasoline stored in pumps right now sells for much more than before the war started. But it was refined weeks ago, from oil extracted months ago. Canada produces <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=2510006301">far more oil than it consumes</a>; three-quarters of our production is exported. Of the modest volumes imported into eastern Canada, <a href="https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/market-snapshots/2024/market-snapshot-crude-oil-imports-rose-slightly-2023-first-time-since-2019.html">almost none</a> comes through the Persian Gulf.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">So there’s no energy ‘supply shock’ in Canada. The cost of producing and refining gasoline hasn’t changed at all. Yet Canadian consumers are already being soaked. And the worst is yet to come.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Petroleum companies profit immensely from this gap between soaring revenues and steady costs. That produced historic petroleum profits after the Ukraine invasion – <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629625003020">almost $1 trillion</a> worldwide in 2022 alone. In Canada, after-tax petroleum profits (upstream and downstream) <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=3310022501">totaled $154 billion</a> from 2022 through 2024, when the inflationary burst finally subsided. That propelled after-tax corporate profits to <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Resilience-of-Profits-Canada-end-2023.pdf">21% of Canadian GDP</a> in 2022 (the highest share in history), even as Canadians struggled with affordability.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">This new war has roiled real oil supplies (not just futures markets), so the price shock will likely be worse and longer lasting. But it’s not inevitable that we should tolerate the resulting economy-wide inflation and higher interest rates here at home.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://perspectivesjournal.ca/institutional-design-of-price-controls-in-canada/">Regulation could curtail</a> the speed and extent to which foreign shocks are reflected in domestic prices. Energy prices could be tied to the actual cost of production (like we already do with electricity). And accelerating the transition to hydro, wind, solar, and geothermal (none of which traverse the Straits of Hormuz!) would further protect us.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Of course, petroleum lobbyists complain that insulating Canadian oil prices from global chaos will cause price ‘distortions’. But it’s hard to imagine anything more distortionary than inflicting another pointless cycle of inflation followed by contraction on an entire national economy – one that is blessed with far more energy than it needs.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">The oil industry’s preferred solution to everything – build more export pipelines – would clearly make affordability even worse. New LNG projects, in particular, will amplify upward pressure on domestic gas prices, something the Alberta government’s <a href="https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/3393a7b5-07bf-4b9f-8aaf-a6d89273297b/resource/58a8d024-398f-482e-b1c2-81a754a97253/download/budget-2026-fiscal-plan-2026-29.pdf">recent provincial budget</a> explicitly celebrated.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Perhaps Canada can’t do much about interminable conflict in the Middle East. But we can certainly do more to protect our own economy from its fallout.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;"> </p><p style="font-weight: 400;"> </p>								</div>
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		<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2026/04/23/speculation-and-greed-explain-the-price-of-gasoline-not-supply-and-demand/">Speculation and Greed Explain the Price of Gasoline, not Supply and Demand</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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		<title>New Report Shows Speculative Oil Markets Drove Inflation Crisis — And It’s Poised to Happen Again</title>
		<link>https://centreforfuturework.ca/2025/03/19/new-report-shows-speculative-oil-markets-drove-inflation-crisis-and-its-poised-to-happen-again/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jim Stanford]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Mar 2025 23:21:41 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Environment & Work]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macroeconomics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://centreforfuturework.ca/?p=2818</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>A new report from the Centre for Future Work reveals that financial speculation in global oil markets — not supply shortages or carbon pricing — was the primary driver of Canada’s inflation surge in 2022. The report, Counting the Costs, finds that inflated oil and gas prices, passed directly and indirectly to Canadian consumers and businesses, cost each household an average of $12,000 over three years.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2025/03/19/new-report-shows-speculative-oil-markets-drove-inflation-crisis-and-its-poised-to-happen-again/">New Report Shows Speculative Oil Markets Drove Inflation Crisis — And It’s Poised to Happen Again</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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									<p style="font-weight: 400;">A new report from the Centre for Future Work reveals that financial speculation in global oil markets — not supply shortages or carbon pricing — was the primary driver of Canada’s inflation surge in 2022. The report, <em>Counting the Costs</em>, finds that inflated oil and gas prices, passed directly and indirectly to Canadian consumers and businesses, cost each household an average of $12,000 over three years.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Furthermore, the report warns that without urgent action, this will happen again, especially as geopolitical instability — like Donald Trump’s erratic threats of tariffs — creates the conditions for another speculative oil price surge.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">The report proposes three policy recommendations to prevent a similar macroeconomic shock in the future from volatile futures markets:</p><ol style="font-weight: 400;"><li>Insulate Canadian fossil fuel prices from the gyrations of financialized futures markets.</li><li>Strengthen royalty regimes and collect excess profits taxes when oil and gas companies profit from future price spikes, redistributed to compensate consumers for extra costs.</li><li>Accelerate energy conservation and the transition to renewable energy systems (which are not in the thrall of futures market speculation).</li></ol><p style="font-weight: 400;">This report is the first publication from a new project, <em><a href="https://www.falseprofits.ca/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">False Profits</a></em>, hosted at the Centre for Future Work. The project will investigate how fossil fuel prices and profits have contributed to affordability challenges and economic insecurity for Canadians.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Please see the full report, <em><strong><a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/FalseProfits-March2025-Counting-the-Costs.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Counting the Costs—Impacts of the 2022 Oil Price Shock for Canadian Consumers and Workers</a></strong></em>, by Jim Stanford and Erin Weir.</p>								</div>
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		<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2025/03/19/new-report-shows-speculative-oil-markets-drove-inflation-crisis-and-its-poised-to-happen-again/">New Report Shows Speculative Oil Markets Drove Inflation Crisis — And It’s Poised to Happen Again</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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		<title>High-Tech Price-Fixing</title>
		<link>https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/12/02/high-tech-price-fixing/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jim Stanford]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Dec 2024 20:16:10 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Technology]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://centreforfuturework.ca/?p=2640</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>One worrisome feature of recent bursts of inflation has been the role of automated price-fixing technologies in pushing up prices across entire industries. Companies use special programs to search out the prices being charged by competitors, and detect changes in demand. These algorithms can then adjust prices quickly, at the level judged to be the highest the market will bear.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/12/02/high-tech-price-fixing/">High-Tech Price-Fixing</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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									<p style="font-weight: 400;">One worrisome feature of recent bursts of inflation has been the role of automated price-fixing technologies in pushing up prices across entire industries. Companies use special programs to search out the prices being charged by competitors, and detect changes in demand. These algorithms can then adjust prices quickly, at the level judged to be the highest the market will bear.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">This process leads to faster transmission of price shocks (such as those resulting from supply chain disruptions, energy price changes, or major crises like the COVID pandemic). And with companies across a sector relying on similar technologies, it can amount to a form of automated price-fixing.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford explored this threat to competitive pricing practices in a recent commentary, originally published in the <a href="https://www.thestar.com/business/opinion/from-a-taylor-swift-hotel-triple-up-to-rideshare-surges-how-algorithms-are-driving-high/article_5451d0a4-9b94-11ef-bbe2-6b1af497a6f3.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em>Toronto Star</em></a>:</p>								</div>
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					<h3 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">How algorithms are driving high-tech price-fixing</h3>				</div>
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				<section class="elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-ced8637 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default wpr-particle-no wpr-jarallax-no wpr-parallax-no wpr-sticky-section-no wpr-column-slider-no wpr-equal-height-no" data-id="ced8637" data-element_type="section" data-e-type="section">
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					<h6 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">by Jim Stanford</h6>				</div>
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									<p style="font-weight: 400;">It was certainly bad timing for me to arrange a business trip to Toronto on November 15, just as Taylor Swift kicks off her six-show run at the Rogers Centre.</p><p><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-2642" src="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/TSwift.webp" alt="" width="1350" height="900" srcset="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/TSwift.webp 1350w, https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/TSwift-300x200.jpg 300w, https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/TSwift-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/TSwift-768x512.jpg 768w, https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/TSwift-1140x760.jpg 1140w" sizes="(max-width: 1350px) 100vw, 1350px" /></p><p style="font-weight: 400;">My usual mid-range hotel room tripled in price (to $900 per night). Worse yet, prices for virtually every comparable hotel within 25 km of downtown also tripled, to around $900.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">I’m not surprised hotels would exploit a spike in demand to soak customers and pad their profits. After all, that’s capitalism.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">But the uniformity and universality of this price-gouging is something new. It’s almost as if all hoteliers in town got together and agreed to triple their rates while Taylor’s in town.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">That would be illegal, of course. But in effect, that’s exactly what happened – thanks to new high-tech algorithms that instantly adjust prices in response to fluctuations in demand, supply, or information.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Hotels were early adopters of new strategies variously called algorithmic pricing, dynamic pricing, or surge pricing. They use big data – on everything from economic trends, special events, competitors’ prices, weather, and even individuals’ buying habits – to automatically fix prices at the highest level (in the algorithm’s judgment) that consumers can bear.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">If all market participants apply algorithms that scrape the same data and apply the same AI logic, then this amounts to high-tech price-fixing. There are no secret memos or off-the-record conversations between corporate executives. As we know, such explicit evidence of collusion is hard to find (Canada’s infamous <a href="https://www.thestar.com/business/loblaw-george-weston-to-pay-half-a-billion-for-bread-price-fixing-scheme-in-largest/article_9c8d61a2-4a96-11ef-9aba-1b747ecf9a8f.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bread price scandal</a> being a rare exception).</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Now businesses leave all the dirty work up to machines. Where price-fixing is concerned, there’s an app for that. Canada’s lax competition laws, already sadly inadequate to prevent price-fixing and cartels, don’t stand a chance against ubiquitous and instantaneous algorithms.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Algorithmic pricing was pioneered in travel and airlines, where firms constantly strive to match available capacity to consumer demand, at the highest possible price. It is now commonplace in many other industries, from <a href="https://breachmedia.ca/canadian-mega-landlord-ai-pricing-scheme-hikes-rents/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rental apartments</a> to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/amazon-used-algorithm-essentially-raise-prices-rcna123410" target="_blank" rel="noopener">e-commerce</a> to <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-agri-stats-operating-extensive-information-exchanges-among-meat" target="_blank" rel="noopener">food manufacturing</a> and <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kroger-comes-under-fire-electronic-100512474.html?guccounter=1&amp;guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&amp;guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIziWvEHXmaB-6ul2CJZUyIPuMRGR5s_vtA7XUyjWQ95iDBTT2mRUjQqiZe9vbdLXRR8HCBVAwKk7f9c0F0kFhDoEOba3PrgSo6VurWg9xtTTEkoCeG0jQdWRUyuS1IZGy4NGGBAabjle-9XOCaJ7HtSVTr_kw-xAd5OEE3hDLAU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">supermarkets</a>.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">This technology can even set individualized prices, based on personal data (from past purchases, demographic characteristics, social media posts, and more) that reveals each consumer’s willingness to pay.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Platform businesses like Uber apply this strategy <a href="https://www.thestar.com/business/drivers-worry-uber-s-new-pricing-algorithm-will-hike-fares-for-riders-while-reducing-their/article_43001daa-8592-11ef-b757-3fab1576058b.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">in two directions</a> at once. They use algorithms to customize pay for each driver (based on the degree of desperation they revealed by accepting previous jobs), rather than using a standard formula based on time and distance travelled. And they apply mirror-image strategies to maximize the price paid by each customer (based on fluctuating supply and demand conditions, past consumer behaviour, and other data).</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Drivers can’t predict what they’ll earn; consumers don’t know what they’ll pay. But Uber is sure to pocket the biggest possible slice of each transaction. Indeed, Uber’s margin on total revenues has <a href="https://www.computerweekly.com/news/366570421/Uber-CEO-admits-pricing-algorithm-uses-behavioural-patterns" target="_blank" rel="noopener">grown substantially</a> since it began applying algorithmic pricing.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Consumers can no longer have confidence about the “going price” for any product or service: it all depends on what the algorithms dictate on any particular day. This confusion facilitates rip-offs.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Indeed, instantaneous algorithmic coordination of prices across firms clearly amplified the inflationary pressures that arose after COVID lockdowns. Using big data and AI to quickly identify and exploit supply shortages and pent-up consumer demand, firms could hike prices faster – confident their competitors (using the same algorithms) would follow suit.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">That’s why <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/06/22/new-data-on-link-between-profits-and-inflation/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">corporate profits tracked inflation</a> so closely: profits in Canada reached their highest share of GDP ever in 2022, just as inflation peaked at 8%. Both profits and inflation have come down since.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">U.S. regulators have started to respond to the challenges of algorithmic pricing. The Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission have launched several lawsuits against companies for <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/business-guidance/blog/2024/03/price-fixing-algorithm-still-price-fixing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">algorithmic price-fixing</a>. And the U.S. Federal Reserve <a href="https://fortune.com/2023/01/06/fed-inflation-interest-rate-hikes-surge-pricing-uber-neel-kashkari/?utm_medium=social&amp;xid=soc_socialflow_twitter_FORTUNE&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_campaign=fortunemagazine&amp;utm_content=later-32160752" target="_blank" rel="noopener">acknowledges</a> that algorithmic pricing practices worsened the outbreak of inflation in 2022.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">Unfortunately, neither the Competition Bureau nor the Bank of Canada have yet come to grips with the risks to price stability and basic fairness posed by these profit-maximizing algorithms. To bring down prices now, and prevent future algorithmic-driven surges in inflation (and hence interest rates), we need our regulators to rise to this new challenge, and hold corporations to account.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">They should heed Taylor Swift’s advice: “Never be so polite you forget your power.”</p>								</div>
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		<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/12/02/high-tech-price-fixing/">High-Tech Price-Fixing</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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		<title>Explainer Video on Corporate Power and Profit-Led Inflation</title>
		<link>https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/09/11/explainer-video-on-corporate-power-and-profit-led-inflation/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jim Stanford]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Sep 2024 02:34:03 +0000</pubDate>
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		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford is featured in a new 6-minute video, produced by the Broadbent Institute, discussing the role of corporate price hikes in post-pandemic inflation.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/09/11/explainer-video-on-corporate-power-and-profit-led-inflation/">Explainer Video on Corporate Power and Profit-Led Inflation</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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									<p style="font-weight: 400;">Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford is featured in a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_G0CC-zddm0">new 6-minute video</a>, produced by the Broadbent Institute, discussing the role of corporate price hikes in post-pandemic inflation.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">He explains how companies in certain strategic sectors (including energy, manufacturing, logistics and wholesale trade, and housing) took advantage of the disruptions and uncertainty of the pandemic to push up prices well beyond actual costs of production.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">The result was the beginning of an inflationary cycle. Unfortunately, workers were victimized twice by this process: first by unduly high prices for essential goods and services, and then again by the impacts of high interest rates which were the Bank of Canada’s only response to this inflation.</p><p style="font-weight: 400;">The video was produced for the Broadbent Institute’s <a href="https://perspectivesjournal.ca/category/video/progressive-political-economy/">Progressive Political Economy series</a>, and can be <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_G0CC-zddm0">viewed here</a>.</p>								</div>
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		<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/09/11/explainer-video-on-corporate-power-and-profit-led-inflation/">Explainer Video on Corporate Power and Profit-Led Inflation</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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		<title>Regulating Prices Not Such a Crazy Idea</title>
		<link>https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/08/25/regulating-prices-not-such-a-crazy-idea/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jim Stanford]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Aug 2024 12:00:12 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macroeconomics]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://centreforfuturework.ca/?p=2565</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Kamala Harris’s entry into the U.S. presidential campaign has had a dramatic impact on political discourse there – not just in the opinion polls, but in policy thinking, as well. For example, in her recently-unveiled economic platform she advocates new federal laws against price-gouging, to limit the power of private businesses to unreasonably jack up prices for groceries and other essentials...</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/08/25/regulating-prices-not-such-a-crazy-idea/">Regulating Prices Not Such a Crazy Idea</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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									<p>Kamala Harris’s entry into the U.S. presidential campaign has had a dramatic impact on political discourse there – not just in the opinion polls, but in policy thinking, as well. For example, in her recently-unveiled economic platform she advocates new federal laws against price-gouging, to limit the power of private businesses to unreasonably jack up prices for groceries and other essentials during emergencies or disruptions (such as the COVID pandemic).</p><p>Harris’s pledge has led to renewed attention on the idea of price regulations as a potential measure in combatting inflation.</p><p>Here is a longer version of an article by Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford, originally published in the <a href="https://www.thestar.com/business/opinion/kamala-harris-would-bring-in-price-caps-to-fight-corporate-gouging-it-could-work-here/article_4f77fd36-5e51-11ef-b4a6-17ae9126588f.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><i>Toronto Star</i></a>, discussing the relevance of Harris’s proposal for Canada.</p><p><b>Kamala Harris Would Bring in Price Caps to Fight Corporate Gouging — It Could Work Here Too</b></p><p>By Jim Stanford</p><p>As economies around the world grappled with inflation after the pandemic, one idea has spurred both interest and controversy. Prices for some essential goods rose far faster in 2021 and 2022 than their costs of production, as companies fattened profits to their <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2022/12/02/fifteen-super-profitable-industries-are-driving-canadian-inflation/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">highest level in history</a>. That was the leading edge of economy-wide inflation.</p><p>The traditional medicine for this problem is to forcibly slow the whole economy with high interest rates. But that further punishes the victims of this profit-led inflation. Could government instead use pre-emptive price caps on strategic commodities to prevent those shocks from spreading into economy-wide inflation?</p><p>The idea has been <a href="https://www.thestar.com/business/opinion/did-corporate-price-gouging-help-fuel-high-inflation-meet-the-controversial-economist-who-says-it/article_e8196bc2-1844-11ef-8976-ebae91673520.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">debated</a> for years. Now, Kamala Harris’s surging presidential campaign has seized on it. <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/price-gouging-vp-harris-proposing-ban-112907461" target="_blank" rel="noopener">She pledged last week</a> to strengthen existing U.S. laws against price-gouging, especially for groceries.</p><p>At least <a href="https://www.findlaw.com/consumer/consumer-transactions/price-gouging-laws-by-state.html?utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=sendto_newslettertest_business&amp;stream=top#_ga=2.38496100.676389784.1724281271-785607112.1724281271" target="_blank" rel="noopener">38 different American states</a> already have laws prohibiting price-gouging, especially during emergencies or natural disasters. These laws typically define price-gouging as large increases in prices (10% or more) that cannot be justified by higher costs. The State of New York used these laws against three companies that jacked up prices for hand sanitizer by up to 400% during the initial COVID-19 outbreak. The firms were <a href="https://ag.ny.gov/press-release/2020/attorney-general-james-stops-three-amazon-sellers-price-gouging-hand-sanitizer#:~:text=d%252Fb%252Fa%2520Supreme%2520Suppliers,hand%2520sanitizer%2520during%2520the%2520pandemic." target="_blank" rel="noopener">levied fines</a> totaling $52,000 (U.S.), and had to reimburse customers for the excess charges.</p><p>The effectiveness of state-level anti-gouging measures can be undermined by firms conducting cross-border sales, and Harris’s proposal seems aimed at closing that loophole with new federal powers – and clarifying their application to staple products like groceries. Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren has <a href="https://www.warren.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/warren-baldwin-casey-schakowsky-reintroduce-legislation-to-crack-down-on-price-gouging-by-giant-corporations" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposed legislation</a> to ban price-gouging nation-wide in any industry, by firms with annual sales over $100 million (U.S.).</p><p>Several Canadian provinces have <a href="https://www.competitionchronicle.com/2020/07/price-gouging-prohibitions-across-canada/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">similar laws</a>. Ontario’s broad <a href="https://www.ola.org/en/legislative-business/bills/parliament-37/session-3/bill-102" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Anti-Price-Gouging Act</a>, for example, prohibits companies from raising prices for essential goods during an emergency, above what they were before the emergency, unless justified by their own higher costs. <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/businessman-defiant-after-alberta-accuses-him-of-selling-hand-sanitizer-at-200-per-cent-markup/article_37131702-58c9-53b4-b062-0300b1b288be.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">One firm in Alberta was even charged</a> under that province’s laws, for excess price hikes on sanitation supplies during pandemic lockdowns.</p><p>Price regulation has been ridiculed by conventional economists as a return to Soviet style central planning, sure to cause a breakdown of the market economy. <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/08/16/harris-lower-grocery-prices-trump-brands-policy-communist/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Donald Trump claimed</a> Harris’s proposals would turn America into Venezuela. But ignore the gotcha politics, and price regulation is in fact a <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/strategic-price-controls-warranted-to-fight-inflation-by-james-k-galbraith-2022-01?barrier=accesspaylog" target="_blank" rel="noopener">normal and accepted element</a> of economic policy.</p><p>Indeed, the potential scope of price regulation in controlling inflation goes beyond just preventing excess price hikes during an immediate emergency. It plays a broader role in preventing profit-seeking businesses from exploiting any competitive advantage beyond reasonable grounds. It’s a normal element in the repertoire of macroeconomic policy.</p><p>Here in Canada, the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh has <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/federal-ndp-want-a-price-cap-on-grocery-store-staples-liberals-say-it-wont-work/article_797eb14b-5806-5a8f-b299-f6ef209b47da.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">called for price caps</a> on essential foodstuffs. Meanwhile, in other countries (including <a href="https://www.thebanker.com/Why-is-inflation-so-low-in-Spain-1692085700" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Spain</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/09/frances-food-industry-pledges-to-cut-prices-government-pressure" target="_blank" rel="noopener">France</a>, and the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58090533" target="_blank" rel="noopener">U.K.</a>), price controls have been established for food, housing, energy and other strategic commodities to help reduce inflation.</p><p>We already use price regulations in many areas of Canada’s economy.</p><p>For example, energy utilities are usually subject to price regulation, to prevent them from abusing their natural monopoly power. When those regulations are strong (especially when backed with public ownership of the system), undue price hikes can be prevented.</p><p>In B.C., Manitoba, and Quebec, strong regulation and public ownership held electricity price increases to just 7-10% over the last five years. In Alberta’s wild west electricity market (privatized and largely deregulated), prices soared 45% in the same time.</p><p>The Atlantic provinces even <a href="https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/market-snapshots/2017/market-snapshot-understanding-regulation-gasoline-prices-in-atlantic-canada.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">regulate gasoline prices</a>, on the basis of allowed mark-ups over international crude oil prices. This doesn’t fully prevent energy price shocks (as occurred after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine), but it moderates them.</p><p>Six provinces have <a href="https://housingrightscanada.com/resources/rent-control-policies-across-canada/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rent controls</a> that limit how much landlords can raise rents (at least for existing tenants). Again, that doesn’t single-handedly fix the housing crisis – but it protects long-term tenants and reduces inflation.</p><p>Meanwhile, the federal government regulates certain pharmaceutical prices under Canada’s patent laws. This system isn’t perfect, and the drug-makers hate it. But it helped hold average price increases for prescription medicines to just 5% since 2019 (compared to the 18% rise in overall consumer prices).</p><p>Prices for other public services are also directly set by government, and can help reduce inflation. Average urban transit fares, for example, increased just 9% over the last five years, half the pace of overall inflation.</p><p>Child care is an outstanding example of how government pricing policy can reduce inflation. Average child care fees have fallen 25% since 2019, thanks mostly to the new <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social-development/campaigns/child-care.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">federal child care program</a>, which is moving toward $10-per-day services. Those lower fees have measurably reduced the consumer price index.</p><p>In short, price regulations are not a bizarre, untested idea. They’re already in place, and already working.</p><p>Even the Bank of Canada acknowledges the importance of price regulations in moderating inflation. Its <a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/mpr-2024-07-24.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">research</a> shows that what it calls “regulation-affected services” (including sectors like communications, whose prices are subject to government oversight) have consistently dampened inflation since the COVID pandemic. They constitute over 8% of all consumer spending. Their prices have increased 2 to 4 percentage points less than expected, slower than any other sector of the economy.</p><p>Yes, price regulations must be carefully designed and enforced. They are not a magic bullet to single-handedly cure inflation. They are just one tool in the overall anti-inflation toolbox.</p><p>But given that the global economy will surely face <a href="https://theideasletter.substack.com/p/disaster-capitalism-revisited" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more inflationary shocks</a> in the future (from war in the Mideast, climate disasters, or future health crises), it’s a tool that should be kept at the ready. In times of trouble, quickly short-circuiting the inflationary impulse arising from undue profit-seeking is much preferable to imposing mass suffering through economy-wide austerity.</p>								</div>
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		<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/08/25/regulating-prices-not-such-a-crazy-idea/">Regulating Prices Not Such a Crazy Idea</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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		<title>New Data on Link Between Profits and Inflation</title>
		<link>https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/06/22/new-data-on-link-between-profits-and-inflation/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jim Stanford]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 23 Jun 2024 06:21:02 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macroeconomics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wages]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://centreforfuturework.ca/?p=2453</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Consumer price inflation has decelerated in Canada in the last year, as rapidly as it accelerated in the 2021-2022 period (sparking high interest rates which in turn caused a painful economic slowdown). At last reading (for April 2024), year-over-year CPI inflation had slowed to 2.7% (down from 8% less than two years earlier). That’s within the Bank of Canada’s target range (2% plus or minus a cushion of 1%). And low enough that the Bank cut its policy rate for the first time in this cycle in June.<br />
Many credit the Bank of Canada’s tough monetary medicine for this quick slowdown in inflation. But that assumes that the initial driving force of inflation was too much spending power in the hands of average Canadians.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/06/22/new-data-on-link-between-profits-and-inflation/">New Data on Link Between Profits and Inflation</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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									<p>The following commentary is based on a presentation, titled <b>Distributional Conflict and Inflation: Data, Theory, and Outcomes</b>, presented by Jim Stanford at the recent meetings of the Canadian Economics Association at Toronto Metropolitan University in May 2024. The full presentation is <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Stanford-for-CEA-May2024.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">available here</a>. The presentation was part of a panel on the role of profits in recent inflation, organized by the Progressive Economics Forum.</p>								</div>
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					<h6 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">By Jim Stanford</h6>				</div>
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									<p>Consumer price inflation has decelerated in Canada in the last year, as rapidly as it accelerated in the 2021-2022 period (sparking high interest rates which in turn caused a painful economic slowdown). At last reading (for April 2024), year-over-year CPI inflation had slowed to 2.7% (down from 8% less than two years earlier). That’s within the Bank of Canada’s target range (2% plus or minus a cushion of 1%). And low enough that the Bank cut its policy rate for the first time in this cycle in June.</p><p>Many credit the Bank of Canada’s tough monetary medicine for this quick slowdown in inflation. But that assumes that the initial driving force of inflation was too much spending power in the hands of average Canadians. High interest rates, by sucking tens of billions of dollars of purchasing power out of households with debt (like mortgages), reduce spending power and hence (in that theory) solve inflation that resulted from assumed ‘excess demand’.</p>								</div>
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															<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="802" height="451" src="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/UnitCostsAndInflation.webp" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-2455" alt="Unit Costs and Inflation line graph" srcset="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/UnitCostsAndInflation.webp 802w, https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/UnitCostsAndInflation-300x169.jpg 300w, https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/UnitCostsAndInflation-768x432.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 802px) 100vw, 802px" />															</div>
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									<p>However, empirical evidence suggests that other factors drove that dramatic but ultimately temporary acceleration in inflation, and hence high interest rates (and the financial challenges they have caused for millions of Canadians) might have been neither appropriate nor necessary to bring inflation down.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>Both the rise and fall of inflation have been closely correlated with unusual trends in corporate profits in Canada (see figure).</p><p>Businesses took advantage of the unique circumstances of the post-lockdown economic re-opening (including disrupted global supply chains, shortages of many strategic commodities, temporary shifts in consumer demand, and a global oil price shock in 2022) to increase their prices far higher than costs, adding substantially to inflation. After mid-2022, when supply conditions began to normalize, corporate profits normalized as well – and so did inflation. There is a very strong correlation between profits per unit of real output in Canada (unit profit cost) and the rate of inflation, but no apparent correlation between unit labour costs (typically held up as the culprit for higher costs and prices) and inflation.</p><p>Canadian workers have been ambitious and largely (but not universally) successful in recuperating the real value of their wages, damaged by the initial surge of inflation in 2021 and 2022. Demands for higher wages, backed up with a surge in union organizing and work stoppages, contributed to a modest acceleration in wage growth. By 2023 wages were growing at 4-5% per year (depending on which measure is used), faster than inflation. As a result, real wages have started to grow again – and there is no sign of that trend stopping yet, despite high interest rates, higher unemployment, and a slowing economy.</p>								</div>
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															<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="802" height="452" src="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/RestorationFactorShares.webp" class="attachment-large size-large wp-image-2454" alt="Restoration of Factor Shares bar graph" srcset="https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/RestorationFactorShares.webp 802w, https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/RestorationFactorShares-300x169.jpg 300w, https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/RestorationFactorShares-768x433.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 802px) 100vw, 802px" />															</div>
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									<p>Indeed, by end-2023, the shift in national income distribution away from wages (and other factor incomes) toward corporate profits that resulted from the burst of post-pandemic profit-led inflation had been largely reversed (see figure). Measured as a share of nominal GDP, workers won back (between mid-2022 and end-2023) almost all of the slice of the economic pie they had lost in the initial inflationary outbreak. The decline in corporate profits (in both absolute terms, and as a share of GDP) since mid-2022 has also largely reversed the increase in the profit share that occurred in the first two years of the pandemic.</p><p>This surprisingly quick restoration of factor shares of GDP, alongside the rapid deceleration of inflation in the last two years, attests to the unique and ultimately temporary circumstances that sparked post-COVID inflation (and corresponding distributional shifts). It is also testament to the labour market institutions (including real minimum wage increases in most provinces, sustained trade union density, and an upsurge in work stoppages) that have backed up workers’ defense of their real wages.</p><p>Things are not fully back to ‘normal’. <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/02/27/canadian-corporate-profits-remain-elevated-despite-economic-slowdown/">Profit margins remain elevated</a> as a share of total revenues. And real wages in some parts of the economy have still been damaged – especially in education and other public services, where intrusive wage suppression efforts by some governments made recent real wage losses all the worse. Real wages in Alberta (where the government has not increased the minimum wage for six years) have fallen <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/05/18/albertas-disappearing-advantage-for-workers/">faster than any other province</a>. Meanwhile, the macroeconomy continues to stagger under the weight of high interest rates: a monetary policy response that did not address the true causes of post-pandemic inflation, but nevertheless suppressed spending power and aggregate demand.</p><p>However, the most recent data suggests that Canada’s structural income distribution is relatively robust. The rapid repair of real wages, and rapid restoration of pre-pandemic factor shares, indicates that workers have power to defend their economic interests – and they have successfully used it. While there’s still work to do to fully repair real wages, that’s something to celebrate.</p>								</div>
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		<p>The post <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca/2024/06/22/new-data-on-link-between-profits-and-inflation/">New Data on Link Between Profits and Inflation</a> appeared first on <a href="https://centreforfuturework.ca">Centre for Future Work</a>.</p>
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