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Comparing Deficits in Canada and the U.S.
Despite predictable Conservative and business complaints about ‘overspending’, Canada’s federal deficit is very small in macroeconomic terms – and one of the smallest among major industrial countries. In 2022, according to the most recent OECD cross-country data, the general government balance in Canada ranked 9th best among the OECD’s 37 member countries...
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Canadian Corporate Profits Remain Elevated Despite Economic Slowdown
Statistics Canada has released year-end data on corporate financial performance for 2023. The new data confirm that corporate profits remain elevated relative to pre-COVID norms, despite the stalling of economic growth in 2023, largely due to weak consumer demand conditions caused by two years of high interest rates.
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Risks and Uncertainties Facing Canada’s Economy in 2024
Canada’s economy enters the New Year facing a wide range of challenges and uncertainties: high interest rates, stalling economic growth, and rising unemployment. To review the outlook, CBC Radio’s Sunday Magazine, hosted by Piya Chattopadhyay, recently broadcast a full 20-minute interview with Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford.
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Testimony to House of Commons Finance Committee Pre-Budget Hearings
Centre for Future Work Economist and Director Jim Stanford was invited to present testimony to the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance, as part of its annual pre-budget hearings. Here are his opening remarks, presented on October 19, 2023.
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Inflation Accelerates in July Despite Higher Unemployment
Statistics Canada reported this week that consumer price inflation in Canada accelerated modestly in July, with the headline year-over-year rate rising to 3.3% (from 2.8% in June). In this commentary, Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford argues this adds to growing evidence that there’s no reliable correlation between inflation and unemployment. The commentary originally appeared at rabble.ca.
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At Last, Wages are Growing Faster Than Prices… and That’s Good
A turning point has recently been reached in the current inflationary upsurge in Canada. Beginning in February, for the first time in two years, the growth in average hourly wages over the previous 12 months finally matched, and slightly exceeded, the corresponding growth in prices. This is a positive development – but doesn’t mean that workers have ‘caught up’ to recent inflation. Because real wages fell so much in 2021 and 2022, wages will need to grow faster than prices for some years to come to repair the damage to workers’ living standards
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House of Cards: Interest Rates, Household Debt, and the Housing Crisis
Last week the Bank of Canada increased its overnight interest rate, for the 9th time in little over a year, to 4.75%. In making its announcement, the Bank cited a slight increase in year-over-year headline CPI inflation last month. This, the Bank suggested, was one reason why it abandoned a temporary ‘hold’ on further interest rate increases announced in January. The Bank’s rationale is ironic, because the Bank’s rapid run-up in interest rates was the main cause of that small uptick in inflation
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The Failures of ‘Trickle-Down’ Economics in Alberta
Since its election in 2019, the current provincial government in Alberta has emphasized a classic ‘trickle-down’ economic strategy. It argues that by boosting profits of private business, capital investment will grow, and job-creation, rising incomes, and economic growth will then ‘trickle down’ to the rest of the population.
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Getting Ready for GFC 2.0
One consequence of the unprecedented tightening of monetary policy imposed by central banks in most countries (including Canada) over the past year has been growing fragility in the broader financial system. Banks, near-banks, and other financial players – many of them highly leveraged after 15 years of near-zero interest rates – are now grappling with the impacts of higher interest rates on their investments and balance sheets.
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The Grocery CEOs Visit Parliament
The House of Commons Agriculture and Agri-Food Committee recently invited the CEOs of Canada’s three largest supermarket chains (Loblaws, Sobeys, and Metro – who together control around two-thirds of all food retailing in Canada) to testify as part of their inquiry into food inflation.