Gender and Work Archives - Centre for Future Work

The Economic Benefits of Expanded Child Care in British Columbia

Jim Stanford — Tue, 24 Jun 2025 12:00:42 +0000

The Centre for Future Work has released a new report documenting the widespread economic benefits resulting from the ongoing expansion of early learning and child care services (ELCC) in British Columbia, as part of the roll-out of the new Canada-wide $10-per-day child care system.

The report builds on previous research published by the Centre about the economic benefits already visible from the new national system: including jobs and GDP generated directly within the ELCC sector, indirect jobs created in supply and consumer industries, and benefits resulting from enhanced female labour force participation and full-time employment.

This new report reviews provincial-level data in B.C. for the same indicators. Economic data confirms that ELCC availability has been expanding rapidly in B.C., generating multiple economic and fiscal benefits:

Over 8,000 new jobs have been created in ELCC provision in B.C. since 2019. The pace of ELCC job-creation has been stronger in B.C. than in Canada as a whole: with employment up 62% for B.C., twice as fast as the 31% growth in national ELCC employment.
Average weekly earnings for ELCC workers have improved in B.C. thanks to stronger funding and the province’s Wage Enhancement policy. Nominal weekly earnings in B.C.’s ELCC sector grew 40% between 2019 and 2024, slightly faster than the average for Canada (36%).
Average hours of work have also increased in the ELCC sector—another indicator of improving job quality. The combination of higher hourly wages with longer hours of work (in part reflecting less reliance on part-time arrangements) produces a two-fold improvement in earnings.
Supported by improved access to child care, core-age (25-54) female labour force participation increased by over one full percentage point between 2019 and 2025 (broadly matching the similar experience in Canada as a whole).
The incidence of part-time employment among core-age female workers has also trended downward as the ELCC system has been expanded. The part-time employment rate among women in B.C. declined by 1.5 percentage points between 2019 and 2025, slightly more than the average for Canada.
The combination of increased labour force participation and increased full-time employment for core age women has increased B.C.’s provincial labour supply by some 33,000 full-time-equivalent workers over the five-year period ending in 2024.
Expanded employment and output in the ELCC sector, indirect and induced activity in both ‘upstream’ supply industries and ‘downstream’ consumer industries, and the incremental output produced via greater female labour supply, have together provided a strong boost to provincial GDP. The report estimates that provincial GDP in 2024 was $5.8 billion higher in 2024 (measured in real 2024 dollar terms) than would have been the case without the expansion of ELCC services after 2019, reinforced by the national $10-per-day program.
The provincial government itself harvests significant fiscal benefits thanks to the boost in GDP, employment, and incomes resulting from expanded ELCC services. Since the provincial government receives 17.5% of provincial GDP in the form of various own-source^[1] revenue streams (such as provincial income taxes, the PST, and other sources), the improvement in GDP resulting from expanded ELCC translates into approximately $1 billion in extra provincial revenue per year.

In sum, the new report confirms that expanded ELCC has been an economic boon for B.C., at a fragile time in the province’s economic history. Accelerating and strengthening the rollout of $10-per-day spaces in the province, and improving the quality of care (including by reducing the province’s current heavy reliance on for-profit providers), will be important in ensuring these economic benefits continue to be reaped in the years to come.

Please see the full report, The Economic Benefits of Expanded Child Care Services in British Columbia, by Jim Stanford. This report was commissioned by the Coalition of Child Care Advocates of B.C.

[1] Excluding federal transfer payments.

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$10-per-Day Child Care Plan Already Boosting Canada’s Economy

Jim Stanford — Mon, 25 Nov 2024 05:00:21 +0000

In 2021, Canada’s federal government announced a new $10-per-day national early learning and child care (ELCC) program, which began rolling out in 2022. It has increased the number of regulated child care spaces in Canada, and significantly reduced (by over 50%) average fees paid by parents.

Economic research has long highlighted the economic benefits of accessible, quality ELCC, in at least three broad categories:

- Economic activity and employment associated with the direct operation of ELCC services.
- Improved labour force participation, employment, and incomes for parents of young children (especially women).
- Improved lifetime achievement for children who received high-quality early child education (including superior outcomes in education, employability, earnings, and health).

While it is still early in the new program’s history, it is clear major economic benefits are already being generated. A new report, Powering Growth: Economic Benefits from Canada’s $10-per-day Early Learning and Child Care Program, by Jim Stanford (Director of the Centre for Future Work) quantifies those benefits, including:

- Significant job-creation: Employment in ELCC has grown by 40,000 positions since 2019. This sector has been the sixth largest source of new work in Canada since 2019.
- Earnings: Increased funding under the new program, combined with complementary agreements around wage grids, training, and workforce retention, are supporting increased wages for ELCC workers. Average weekly earnings have increased 28% in the last five years.
- Hours of work: Another sign of improving job quality in the ELCC sector is the growing prevalence of full-time work. Average hours grew by 6% (or almost 2 hours per week) between 2019 and 2024.
- Aggregate earnings: ELCC workers will earn over $8 billion in wages and salaries in 2024 (up almost two-thirds from under $5 billion in 2019), supporting stronger consumer spending in many thousands of households.
- Female labour force participation: Female labour force participation has grown notably, supported by the expansion of ELCC services. Since 2019, core-age (25-54) labour force participation by women has grown by 1.4 percentage points (translating to 110,000 additional workers.
- Female full-time work: Accessible ELCC services allow more women to work full-time hours. The share of core-age women working full-time has increased by 2 percentage points since 2019, equivalent to adding another 65,000 women to the labour force.
- GDP growth: Direct GDP in the ELCC sector will exceed $11 billion in 2024, a strong increase from 2019. Further GDP gains are also produced by supply chain purchases by ELCC centres (including construction and renovation of facilities), downstream consumer spending by newly-hired ELCC workers, and the output of incremental female workers engaged in paid work thanks to more accessible, affordable ELCC services. All told, $32 billion in additional GDP was generated in 2024 from the combination of increased direct ELCC production, indirect (upstream and downstream) spin-off jobs, and increased female labour supply. The expansion of ELCC services likely prevented Canada from experiencing a ‘technical recession’ in the second half of 2023.
- Fiscal benefits: Federal and provincial governments collect a significant share of incremental GDP through various tax channels (including income, sales, and corporate taxes). The enhancement to national output arising directly and indirectly from expanded ELCC services has thus already contributed several billion dollars to annual government revenues.
- Inflation: The average cost of child care services to Canadian consumers declined 28% between 2021 and 2024 – in contrast to the 13% increase in overall consumer prices experienced in the same time. As the biggest ELCC cost reductions were being introduced in 2022 and 2023, ELCC price cuts measurably reduced national inflation.

Please see the full report for detailed evidence on these varied channels of economic benefits already visible from the introduction and expansion of the $10-per-day program. Canada’s economy is already benefiting from this important program.

Ce rapport est également disponible en français.

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Podcast on the Federal Budget, Early Child Education, and the Recovery from COVID

Jim Stanford — Thu, 22 Apr 2021 19:06:31 +0000

Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford was a guest in this post-budget special edition of The Herle Burly podcast, hosted by David Herle. He and fellow panelists Dr. Kate Bezanson (from Brock University) and Peter Nicholson (former head of policy for the PMO) dissected the budget’s eye-popping deficit forecast, whether deficits matter, and the economic importance of universal high-quality early child education. Watch the full discussion here.

Budget Panel: Bezanson, Nicholson, Stanford + the Political Panel: Byrne and Reid | The Herle Burly

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National Child Care Roll-Out Will Boost Economy More Than Budget Estimates

Jim Stanford — Tue, 20 Apr 2021 01:58:09 +0000

Today’s federal government pledge to implement a national affordable child care program will significantly accelerate Canada’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and recession, according to research from the Vancouver-based Centre for Future Work.

And the Centre suggests that the resulting boost to output and employment will be significantly larger than estimated by today’s federal budget.

“Universal high-quality early child education is a vital ingredient in a high-performance economy, and this plan will spark job-creation and income growth across the country,” said Dr. Jim Stanford, Economist and Director of the Centre for Future Work.

“In fact, the improvements in employment and GDP growth arising from the plan are likely to be far greater than the cautious estimates cited in the budget,” he added.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s budget estimates the new program will boost female employment by 240,000 positions, and add 1.2% to GDP once fully implemented. But the Centre’s own research, published in December, suggests the gains in employment and output could be up to 4 times larger.

The Centre estimates that 200,000 jobs would be created over ten years within child care and early learning facilities, and another 86,000 in the supply chain (including construction) linked to child care work. The Centre also estimated that as many as 780,000 more parent-age women would join the labour force, or increase their hours of work, if affordable child care was available. Combined, these effects would boost employment by 650,000 to 1 million jobs, and lift GDP after full phase-in by $63 to $107 billion per year. That would represent an increase in total output of 2.7% to 4.6% (all estimates measured in 2019 dollar terms).

“The Finance Minister was extremely cautious in her estimate of the economic gains that will be unleashed by national child care,” said Stanford. “In reality, the ultimate boost to employment and output from this program will likely be much larger.”

“Investing in a high-quality, accessible early child education program will significantly accelerate Canada’s economic recovery from the pandemic. This is a powerful, timely measure.”

“The icing on the cake,” Stanford added, “is that the resulting growth in government tax revenues arising from new employment and output will quite literally offset the costs to government of rolling out this program.”

In the Centre for Future Work projections, federal government revenues would grow under a full national system by $8-$14 billion per year – offsetting the $8.3 billion ongoing increase in annual child care funding promised by Freeland. Provincial governments will capture an equivalent amount in new revenues from the growth in employment and output, giving them a powerful fiscal incentive to participate in the program.

The Centre’s full report, The Role of Early Learning and Child Care in Rebuilding Canada’s Economy after COVID-19, is available here.

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Quick Progress on National Child Care Would Accelerate Economic Rebound

Jim Stanford — Mon, 21 Dec 2020 19:04:59 +0000

The federal government has promised major funding for a national child care and early learning program in Canada. A recent Centre for Future Work report highlighted the substantial economic benefits that would be generated by such a program: including direct and indirect jobs providing early learning and child care (ELCC) services, improved female labour force participation, and stronger learning, employment, and health outcomes for children who participate in high-quality ELCC. In the following commentary, the Centre’s Director Jim Stanford summarizes those economic benefits, and argues it is incumbent on governments – provincial as well as federal – to move quickly ahead to start rolling out this program to boost Canada’s economic recovery after COVID.

This commentary was originally published in Policy Options, journal of the Institute for Research on Public Policy.

National Child Care Plan Would Accelerate Post-COVID Recovery

Canadian governments have been talking about national public child care for years. And the issue is once again at the top of the political agenda, because of the extreme labour market and work-life pressures unleashed by the COVID-19 pandemic. The federal government’s Speech from the Throne committed Ottawa to “a significant, long-term, sustained investment to create a Canada-wide early learning and childcare system.” Citing a broad consensus from business leaders, unions, and educators, the Speech issued a strong call to action: “The time is now.”

This admirable ambition must now navigate the usual minefields of competing fiscal priorities and federal-provincial wrangling. Unlike previous initiatives (like a 2005 national plan, which collapsed within months following a change in government), this one could well come to fruition. There are several reasons why the alignment of political and economic forces could allow the federal government to finally get the ball over the line.

First, business leaders (from major banks to the Canada Business Council) have affirmed their support for universal child care, as critical to their own workforce strategies. It’s not often the business community lines up in favour of a big new social program.

Second, while remnants of old-fashioned hostility toward public child care still lurk in some constituencies, child care is less partisan than it used to be. For example, the recent election platform of B.C.’s Liberal party (that province’s major conservative party) featured a commitment to 10,000 new child care spaces and a means-tested $10-per-day fee schedule. That was trumped by the NDP’s more expansive (and ultimately more successful) pledge: 22,000 spaces and universal $10-per-day services. But the contest confirmed that politicians of all stripes now see child care as an electoral winner.

Third, the economic case for moving ahead with a national system is stronger than ever because of the pandemic. Economists have known for years that the benefits from public funding for early learning and child care (ELCC) outweigh the costs.¹ But those arguments are more compelling after COVID-19: especially given the disproportionate consequences of the pandemic for women.²

I recently surveyed the economic impacts of universal child care in Canada, estimating their general order of magnitude after COVID. I identified three broad categories of benefits: each felt through distinct economic channels, and according to different timelines.

The first and most immediate benefit is the new employment and income associated with producing and delivering ELCC services to many more children. I modelled a system that could enrol most 1-5 year-olds in Canada (adjusted for kindergarten attendance by 4- and 5-year-olds). This expanded system would need to hire over 200,000 educators and administrators – phased in, say, over a decade – boosting national GDP by $10 billion per year.

This program would also stimulate new sales for industries that supply the child care sector: from buildings to utilities to services. And newly employed ELCC workers would spend their incomes on consumer goods and services, stimulating still more business. I estimate another $10 billion per year in these indirect benefits, and tens of thousands more jobs – including 8,000 ongoing construction jobs building and retrofitting new child care centres.

In this way, rolling out national child care has similar benefits to other job-stimulating stimulus policies. But because child care workers earn relatively low salaries, this program generates much more “bang for the buck” in new jobs than conventional make-work programs (like building roads and bridges).

The second category of economic benefits relies on boosting labour force participation by parent-age women – severely suppressed by the absence of affordable, high-quality ELCC. In parenting age cohorts, women’s participation is 8 percentage points lower than for men. This robs the economy of the productivity and income-generating potential of hundreds of thousands of potential workers.

If that participation gap were halved, about 250,000 more women would join the labour market. If it were eliminated, 500,000 more female workers would be available. On top of that, child care allows more women to work full-time rather than part-time – boosting labour supply by up to 280,000 more full-time equivalents. Once they start working (in the paid labour market), those women would boost Canada’s total GDP by $45 to $90 billion per year.

The third category of economic benefits takes longer to be realized, and is the most difficult to quantify – but in the end could be the most important. Scientific evidence from a range of disciplines indicates that high-quality learning experiences during childrens’ early years, while their synaptic connections are being quickly formed, contributes to better lifelong outcomes across many dimensions: including ability to learn, employability, health, and social outcomes. These benefits are most evident for children from lower-income and marginalized backgrounds, but can be experienced by any kids.

Long-term longitudinal research³ indicates the significant size of these benefits: increased lifelong earnings capacity, higher productivity, and fiscal savings in many areas (including lower health care, welfare, and criminal justice costs). Providing top-quality ELCC to all Canadian children, regardless of their income levels, will undoubtedly produce a healthier, more cohesive, and more equal society.

Considering all of these categories, it is clear that a universal national ELCC system would deliver major economic, social and fiscal benefits at a time in Canada’s history when our economy needs all the help it can get. And for political leaders intimidated by the price tag for a new national program, the extra GDP and incomes generated by national child care would in turn boost tax revenue for governments at all levels.

My estimates suggest that higher GDP from direct child care production and increased female participation (not counting the third category of long-run social and fiscal savings) would boost government revenues by $17 to $29 billion per year. That revenue would be split between the federal and provincial governments, and would more than cover the costs of even an ambitious national program. In this sense, child care is a social program that quite literally “pays for itself.”⁴

Politically it is important to note that while most of the initiative and fiscal support for national ELCC is coming from Ottawa, provincial governments would benefit enormously from the new system. Provincial GDP would grow, tens of thousands of jobs would be created, and provincial revenues would grow by $8-14 billion per year. In fact, the biggest gains would be experienced in those provinces with the weakest existing ELCC systems: the prairies and Ontario. That should concentrate the minds of conservative premiers in those regions who might otherwise be inclined to discourage or even block a national system.

In the wake of COVID-19, Canada needs the economic benefits of high-quality, universal ELCC more urgently than ever. Investing in a national plan is an economic “no-brainer,” that will pay for itself.

The Speech from the Throne is correct. This is the time.

————————————–

See surveys of this evidence in Duncan and Magnuson (2013), Fairholm and Anderson (2017), and Weiss and Brandon (2010).
See Scott (2020) and Yalnizyan (2020).
See, for example, the research surveyed in McCain et al. (2011), Executive Office of the President (2015), and Heckman.
The experience of Quebec’s child care system confirms that the fiscal benefits received by governments exceed the cost of providing the services; see Fortin et al. (2012).

References

Duncan, Greg J. and Katherine Magnuson (2013). “Investing in Preschool Programs,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 27(2): 109-132.

Executive Office of the President of the United States (2015). The Economics of Early Childhood Investments (Washington: Executive Office of the President of the United States), https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/docs/ early_childhood_report_update_final_non-embargo.pdf.

Fairholm, Robert, and Lynell Anderson (2017). “Socio-economic impact analysis of the $10 a day child care plan for British Columbia” (Vancouver: Early Childhood Educators of BC), https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/10aday/pages/357/ attachments/original/1484678670/10aDay_C4SE_economist_report.pdf?1484678670.

Fortin, P., L. Godbout, and S. St-Cerny (2012). “Impact of Quebec’s Universal Low-Fee Childcare Program on Female Labour Force Participation, Domestic Income, and Government Budget” (Sherbrooke: Université de Sherbrooke, Chaire de récherche en fiscalité et en finances publiques), https://www.oise.utoronto.ca/atkinson/ UserFiles/File/News/Fortin-Godbout-St_Cerny_eng.pdf.

Heckman, James. J., Jora Stixrud, and Sergio Urzua (2006). “The Effects of Cognitive and Noncognitive Abilities on Labor Market Outcomes and Social Behavior,” Journal of Labor Economics 24(3), pp. 411-482.

McCain, Margaret, Fraser Mustard, and Kerry McCuaig (2011). Early Years Study 3: Making Decisions, Taking Action (Toronto: McCain Family Foundation), http://ELCCreport.ca/media/uploads/pdfs/early-years-study3-2011.pdf.

Scott, Katherine (2020). “Left behind: Two decades of economic progress for single mothers at risk of being wiped out,” Behind the Numbers blog, September 16, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, https://behindthenumbers.ca/2020/09/16/ left-behind-two-decades-of-economic-progress-for-single-mothers-at-risk-of-being-wiped-out/.

Weiss, Elaine, and Richard Brandon (2010). The Economic Value of the U.S. Early Childhood Sector (Washington, Pew Center on the States), http://readynation.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/The-Economic-Value-of-The-U.S.-Early-Childhood-Sector.pdf.

Yalnizyan, Armine (2020). “COVID-19’s impact: not recession, but a completely different economics,” Toronto Star, April 9, https://www.thestar.com/opinion/ contributors/2020/04/09/covid-19s-impact-not-recession-but-a-completely-different-economics.html.

This commentary is based on a longer report published by the Centre for Future Work, available at https://centreforfuturework.ca/2020/11/25/child-care-expansion-would-boost-economic-recovery-study-finds/.

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Provinces Should Welcome Federal Child Care Plan With Open Arms

Jim Stanford — Sat, 28 Nov 2020 18:45:14 +0000

On the heels of the Centre for Future Work’s new report on the economic benefits of a national early learning and child care program, Director Jim Stanford prepared this commentary (originally published in the Toronto Star) on the fiscal benefits that would flow to provincial governments under the plan. Those provinces with the most underdeveloped child care systems today (namely, Ontario and the prairies) have the most to gain from a new national system: they should embrace the federal proposal enthusiastically.

After years of false starts, the federal government seems intent to finally move forward with a national child care program. The Liberals’ recent Throne Speech put it bluntly: “The time is now.” It promised a “significant, long-term sustained investment” to make universal child care a reality.

As always in Canada, however, the plan must navigate the treacherous terrain of federal-provincial jurisdiction. Ottawa is greasing the wheels with significant new funding (more details may be forthcoming in Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s fiscal update on Monday). But provincial stalling could still block the way.

That would be a tragedy. Because rolling out a national child care system would make an unparalleled contribution to job-creation and economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic. And no stakeholder would benefit more than the provincial governments. In that light, premiers like Ontario’s Doug Ford should be jumping for joy at Ottawa’s proposal.

Any parent who tried to juggle kids and Zoom calls while working from home during the lockdown knows that quality child care is essential for getting Canada back to work. And most economists, business leaders, and social policy experts agree. Earlier this week I released a new report on the economic benefits of universal child care. Those benefits fall into three broad categories:

First, over 200,000 direct jobs would be created operating child care centres – and tens of thousands more in the various industries (like construction) which supply goods and services to child care. Second, up to 725,000 women of parenting age would expand their labour supply, once affordable, quality child care is available. Third, a whole raft of economic, social, and fiscal benefits would ultimately be produced because more children receive high-quality instruction during their brain-forming early years.

Those benefits will flow across the country. But Ontario will get more than any other region – precisely because this province has lagged so badly in providing accessible care. Right now Ontario has enough regulated spaces for less than 30% of pre-school children. And Ontario’s average fees are the second-highest of any province: $12,800 per year per child.

With too few spaces, and too high fees, it’s no surprise labour force participation for parenting-age women in Ontario is among the lowest in Canada: just 82% in 2019. That’s five points behind Quebec, with its successful public child care system. And nine points lower than male participation for the same age group. Inadequate child care is thus robbing Ontario’s economy of the talents and productivity of some 180,000 women. Tapping that potential would unlock billions of dollars in additional GDP, incomes – and provincial tax revenues. My research suggests Ontario would single-handedly capture 42% of all the new jobs stimulated by national child care, more than its share of the population.

Indeed, provincial governments would be the biggest winners under a national system. The federal government is bringing political momentum, and big sums of money, to the table. But the provincial governments, just through their existing income, sales, and other taxes, would pocket almost half of the incremental revenues created through all that new employment and GDP. Between $8 billion and $14 billion per year in extra revenues would flow into provincial coffers once the system is in place.

Premier Ford faces a jaw-dropping provincial deficit of $38.5 billion this year, with red ink projected years into the future. He cannot afford to look this gift horse in the mouth. Yet he has been silent on the federal child care proposal. Worse yet, within a week of the Throne Speech, his government tabled a bizarre set of proposed changes to child care regulations (increasing class sizes and permitting use of unqualified staff) that go in exactly the opposite direction.

Ontario’s failure to build a 21^st-century child care system is holding back provincial economic recovery. Its patchwork arrangement of overstretched group care, tax-subsidized nannies, and sky-high fees squanders tens of billions of dollars of GDP, income, and tax revenue. Ontario, and other lagging provinces, have a golden opportunity to fix this problem – and in so doing accelerate Canada’s reconstruction after COVID-19.

If the federal government is willing to spend big to finally do what Canada should have done years ago, Premier Ford should embrace this opportunity with open arms.

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Child Care Expansion Would Boost Economic Recovery, Study Finds

Jim Stanford — Wed, 25 Nov 2020 11:00:23 +0000

Implementing a new national child care system would generate several important benefits for Canada’s economy as it recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic and recession, according to new research from the Centre for Future Work.

A universal national early learning and child care (ELCC) program would create over 200,000 direct jobs in child care centres, 80,000 more jobs in industries which support and supply the ELCC sector, and facilitate increased labour force participation and employment by up to 725,000 Canadian women in prime parenting years.

The report, prepared by economist Dr. Jim Stanford (Director of the Centre for Future Work), also projects large increases in Canadian GDP as a result of direct ELCC provision and increased female labour force participation. By the end of a 10-year implementation period, annual Canadian GDP would be $63 to $107 billion greater than it would have been without expanded child care.

Extra government revenues collected as a result of increased economic activity would add $17 to $29 billion to government coffers per year – split between the federal and provincial governments. That would be more than enough to cover the total costs of a national ELCC program.

The recent federal Throne Speech committed to a rapid roll-out of a new national ELCC plan. This research indicates that such a plan would add significant momentum to Canada’s macroeconomy in the wake of the pandemic.

Please read the full report, The Role of Early Learning and Child Care in Rebuilding Canada’s Economy after COVID-19. The report was commissioned by the Child Care Now coalition.

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