Stellantis Shows Canada’s Industrial Economy is On the Line

As the saying goes, when someone tells you who they are, you should believe them. And where cars are concerned, Donald Trump has been telling us exactly who he is.

He warned in April, “We don’t really want Canada to make cars for us.” Commerce Secretary Howard Luttnick recently confirmed this goal, telling a Canadian audience “car assembly is going to be in America, and there is nothing Canada can do about it.”

So we shouldn’t be surprised that automaker Stellantis is shifting planned production of a new Jeep from its plant in Brampton, to Illinois. This is Trump’s precise goal: weaponize access to the U.S. market, to leverage incoming investment from global companies in strategic, high-tech industries.

Nevertheless, the sheer gall of Stellantis’ action is shocking. It is breaking explicit commitments made to all its key partners: its own workers (in a binding labour contract), the federal and provincial governments (in binding covenants attached to various subsidies), and auto parts companies (which invested hundreds of millions in new tooling and capital for Brampton).

Trump’s 25% tariffs on cars are already exacting a painful toll. Vehicle exports to the U.S. are down 15% year-over-year since they came into effect; that will translate (if sustained) into a $7 billion annual loss. Trump is now implementing a 25% tariff on heavy trucks that will add to the pain.

But the biggest danger to Canada’s auto industry still lies ahead. If corporations respond to Trump’s extortion by shifting long-run investment to the U.S., Canada’s industrial capacity will be destroyed.

That’s why the Stellantis decision cannot stand. It would set a precedent that quickly spreads into all other high-tech industries.

Remember, while the auto industry has high symbolic value, Trump has his trade guns trained on the whole portfolio of Canadian high-tech industries. His tariffs fall into two broad categories.

First, there is a broad across-the-board tariff. But for now, most industries are exempt if they meet existing rules under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). Most of those exempted products are resource-based commodities (energy, minerals, other raw materials) that Trump knows are essential to U.S. supply chains.

For a second category of industries, Trump is attacking full force. He is mis-using Section 232 powers under the U.S. Trade Expansion Act that allow him to unilaterally impose tariffs on grounds of “national security.” His claim these imports jeopardize U.S. security is bogus. His true goal is to force global companies in strategic industries to relocate to America.

It’s no coincidence these 232 tariffs are aimed at every one of Canada’s high-tech success stories: auto, trucks, steel and other basic metals, soon to be joined by aerospace, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, industrial machinery, and more.

Stellantis’s decision is thus a dramatic opening battle in what will be a long, hard war to defend Canada’s status as a modern, industrial country. Yes, we will work to build new export markets, strengthen Canadian content in procurement, and expand trade within Canada. That is vital, and will take time.

In the meantime, we must at all costs defend the successful high-tech industries we have – every one of which is now in Trump’s crosshairs.

Ironically, Trump’s tariffs are clearly hurting U.S. manufacturing, not helping it. They increase input costs for U.S. factories, and create major uncertainty that holds back capital spending (notwithstanding photo-op announcements by obsequious CEOs).

U.S. manufacturing has contracted for seven consecutive months. As of August, the U.S. had lost almost 100,000 manufacturing jobs over the previous year. In contrast, Canada lost just 3,000 manufacturing jobs in the last year.

The major pain being experienced south of the border disproves the passive assumption that Canada has no leverage because of our smaller size. In reality, Canada is not small: we have the tenth largest economy in the world, with 42 million people, well-educated workers, natural riches, and a more stable democracy. The U.S. benefits from bilateral trade as much as we do.

In automotives, Canada has one of the largest and most lucrative vehicle markets in the world. We buy almost 2 million new vehicles per year, worth over $100 billion. Stellantis, and all other automakers, want a piece of it.

Last year Stellantis sold 130,000 new vehicles here – most imported, most of those from the U.S. At present Stellantis mostly avoids Canada’s 25% counter-tariff on vehicle imports from the U.S., thanks to a clever Canadian duty remission program.

And Stellantis benefits from other public supports, including subsidies for retooling that Brampton plant, and ongoing production credits for EV batteries from a new joint venture in Windsor.

All that support is contingent on Stellantis maintaining its production footprint here. It cannot be allowed to walk away from that commitment. The government must confront Stellantis with the full force of a sovereign, wealthy country.

Industry Minister Mélanie Joly has threatened legal action. That should just be the start. Ottawa should threaten full 25% tariffs on all Stellantis imports (costing $1.5 billion per year), until it recommits to completing the tooling at Brampton, paying interim income support to its workforce, and then fully utilizing the plant when it’s finished.

Pushing back against Stellantis will send a signal to companies in every other high-tech industry. If you want access to Canada’s market, Canada’s resources, and Canada’s supply chains, you must maintain a full-fledged production footprint here.

The Stellantis decision also highlights the failure of Ottawa’s strategy to appease Trump – with multiple concessions and personal flattery. While we talk nice, he races full-speed to steal as many high-tech high-wage jobs as he can.

Even worse would be a partial tariff deal that cements U.S. access to energy and other strategic inputs, while hanging our high-tech industries out to dry. By giving away our leverage without protecting our industrial jewels, that would be worse than no deal.

The Stellantis decision is a litmus test of our national courage. We have power to push back against this company, and against the autocrat it is catering to. If we don’t use it, we can expect many more companies to follow in Stellantis’ footsteps.