Annotated Bibliography on the Net Employment Benefits of the Energy Transition

Compiled by Jim Stanford

Investments in sustainable energy and energy conservation are larger than investments in fossil fuel energy systems. Moreover, the work involved is more labour-intensive than fossil fuel projects (which have very small labour inputs relative to the scale of capital investments or GDP). For both reasons, the shift from fossil fuels to sustainable alternatives will definitely create far more jobs than are lost in fossil fuel industries as the economy transitions to net-zero.

This is a summary of previous research on the net employment benefits of sustainable energy projects, and other dimensions of the energy transition. It reviews several studies of the employment impacts of renewable energy and related investments in Canada, and then several international reports on parallel trends in the global economy.

Previous Canadian Studies

In a report for the Pembina Institute, Kaddoura et al. (2020) forecast potential new employment in four areas of emissions-reducing investment in Alberta, over a ten-year period. The report estimated that over 67,000 new jobs would be created in the province over a decade, driven by investments in four broad areas: renewable electricity generation, public transit and electric vehicle infrastructure, energy efficiency improvements in buildings and industry, and a program of remediation and methane reduction in oil and gas extraction facilities. That is enough new employment to offset two-thirds of all jobs in the province’s existing petroleum industry.
In neighbouring B.C., Lee and Klein (2020) estimated the employment impacts of investing 2% of provincial GDP in renewable energy and energy conservation initiatives (as proposed by Nicholas Stern in his landmark international report, 2006). They projected an investment programme of this scale would create and maintain 42,000 jobs in the provincial economy – far more than are presently supported by fossil fuel industries in that province. Due to the higher labour content of alternative energy and related products, shifting investment from fossil fuel production to renewable energy, energy efficiency, and decarbonized transportation systems generates net employment growth.
Another provincial-focused study was published by the Ecology Action Centre (2019) for Nova Scotia. This research simulated the employment impacts of a programme to reduce provincial GHG emissions by 50% by 2030, in line with Canada’s Paris Agreement commitments. Investments in renewable energy generation, energy efficiency, and public transit would support the creation of 15,000 net new jobs in Nova Scotia – and thousands more spin-off jobs elsewhere in Canada. The province would benefit from expanded GDP growth, enhanced tax revenue, and $675 million in additional annual personal income (measured in real 2019 dollar terms).
A project initiated by the David Suzuki Foundation modeled the investment and technological dimensions of an ambitious effort to expand and decarbonize Canada’s electricity system, through the rapid deployment of renewable power sources and conversion of heating, transportation, and industrial energy uses to electric power (Thomas and Green, 2022). The report also estimated the employment effects of this investment programme, which would achieve a net-zero electricity system by 2035. The analysis considered only direct construction and operation jobs associated with economy-wide electrification; it did not include indirect (upstream) or induced (downstream) spin-off jobs (such as jobs in manufacturing activities spurred by electrification), nor jobs in other emerging technologies (such as battery storage). In this regard, the forecast is very conservative. The report expects about 75,000 new jobs related to electricity generation and infrastructure to be created over the first 15 years of investment. Proportionately, the largest job growth is experienced in Alberta and Saskatchewan, where the GDP and employment gains from electrification are especially significant.
Jobs for Tomorrow (Bridge and Gilbert, 2017), focused on the impacts of the energy transition for employment among building and construction trades. That report catalogued likely investments across three broad categories of emissions-reduction activity: renewable energy generation and transmission; building energy efficiency and district energy systems; and transportation. It then estimated employment impacts of those projects on the basis of previously published employment coefficients. Across those three categories of activity, the report projected that a total of 3.3 million person-years of employment would be created in construction trades by 2050. Two-thirds of that growth was concentrated in non-residential construction (as builders updated existing structures, and built new ones, to incorporate rigorous new energy efficiency standards). Clearly, the massive investments required to facilitate the energy transition in Canada and meet international emissions-reduction commitments imply very strong ongoing demand for construction trades work.
A sequel to that 2017 report, now titled Jobs for Today, updated those projections of construction jobs arising from major investments in renewable energy systems, energy conservation, and sustainable transportation (Bridge and Stanford, 2025). This report surveyed evidence on the impacts of sustainable energy investments that are already visible on Canadian labour markets. Then it forecast the scale of investment spending that would be required to meet Canada’s official net-zero commitments in three broad areas: the full range of non-emitting energy systems (hydro, solar, wind, geothermal, nuclear, and tidal) and associated transmission investments; investments in energy-efficient buildings and community infrastructure (including new super-efficient industrial, commercial, and institutional buildings, retrofits of existing buildings, and energy-conserving district energy systems), and investments in sustainable transportation systems (including EV charging networks, urban public transit, and high-speed inter-city rail). The application of employment coefficients derived from official economic data and other published data can then translate those investment forecasts into employment projections. These investments are forecast to support the creation of 6.3 million to 9.5 million jobs years of work for construction and building trades workers – equivalent to an average of 235,000 to 350,000 new jobs on average over the next 25 years. The estimates do not include indirect or spin-off jobs in supply chains or associated manufacturing.
A deeper dive into the impacts of the energy transition for one specific trade – electricians – was undertaken by Electricity Human Resources Canada (2023). This report compiled estimates of new jobs arising from the expansion of renewable energy generation, along with transmission expansion and upgrades. The shift to renewable energy and electrification will accelerate demand for electricians considerably. The report projects net job growth of 12,000 positions in the five years ending in 2028. That is on top of the need to replace over 15,000 anticipated electrician retirements in the same period. There is no doubt that electricians are an occupation with increasing employment opportunities in coming years. The report urged additional investments in training and apprenticeships by employers and governments.
Another specific construction trade that will experience new job opportunities from the growing focus on energy conservation is insulators. Calvert and Crabtree (2022) and Calvert (2023) relate the experience of Local 131 of the insulators’ union (in New Brunswick), which pro-actively undertook an independent program of free energy audits for owners of commercial and industrial buildings. The goal was to highlight for building owners the operational and cost savings from upgraded insulation and energy conservation upgrades. The campaign was successful and generated significant amounts of new work for members of the union. Other insulator union locals have also launched industry awareness programs to promote energy retrofits, similarly generating new work opportunities for union members (Calvert and Tallon, 2016; Calvert, 2019).
The positive employment effects of electrification were further explored in a report by the David Suzuki Foundation (Thomas and Green, 2022). This report mapped the investments required to support deep electrification of Canada’s economy, on the strength of massive investments in renewable energy generation, transmission, distribution and storage facilities. To decarbonize existing electricity generation (by 2035, as per existing federal standards), and then meet the extra demand for electricity from the spread of emissions-free technologies in other sectors (such as transportation and heating), an 18-fold increase in total wind and solar generation will be needed by 2050. Some 1.5 million person-years of work will be created in the construction, operation, and maintenance of new wind and solar generating capacity, and associated battery storage. The implications of this ambitious electrification strategy for carbon emissions are hopeful: this plan would reduce emissions by a cumulative total of 3.2 billion tonnes in the period to 2050.
Clean Energy Canada has published successive reports estimating employment growth in what it calls Canada’s “clean energy economy” (Clean Energy Canada, 2019, 2021; Navius Research, 2019). The research estimated that as of 2020 some 430,000 jobs already existed in a broadly-defined clean energy sector: including renewable energy production and distribution, construction and retrofit of energy efficient buildings, clean energy transportation, and specialized clean energy industries (such as low-carbon machinery, and emission detection and control). That was an increase of over 130,000 jobs (or over one-third) from 2017. And under the climate policy outlook adopted by the federal government, clean energy jobs were forecast to grow by another 200,000 positions by 2030 – outweighing a projected decline in fossil fuel-related employment of 125,000 positions over the same time. Clean Energy Canada’s modeling confirms net gains in employment from the transition to clean energy will be experienced in all parts of Canada, including in fossil fuel-producing provinces.
A separate report prepared for Clean Energy Canada by Dunsky Energy Consulting (2018) considered the macroeconomic and employment effects from energy efficiency improvements, as mandated in the previous federal-provincial Pan Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change. The Dunsky modeling traces several channels of impact from the energy efficiency provisions of that federal-provincial agreement: including energy efficiency standards in new buildings, retrofits of existing buildings, new energy efficiency standards in appliances and equipment, and industrial energy efficiency. Those efficiency improvements were expected to meet 25% of Canada’s Paris commitments for emissions reduction. The economic stimulus from energy efficiency comes from two major channels: increased demand for efficiency-related goods and services (including building construction and retrofit), and reallocated savings on energy costs by consumers and businesses (which redeploy their energy savings into other forms of expenditure). Those effects more than offset the reduced economic activity associated with energy production resulting from reduced demand for the energy. The jobs impact of the efficiency improvements was estimated at an average net gain in ongoing employment of 118,000 over a 13-year period (to 2030), and a 1% increase in national GDP over the baseline trajectory.
Xuereb and Hillel (2023) simulated the employment impacts of an ambitious programme of proposed investment in a range of energy transition and conservation initiatives, worth a cumulative total of $287 billion over five years. (The details of this investment programme are described in Lee et al., 2023.) Based on an allocation of investment spending across different components of activity associated with each project category, this research estimated that investments on this scale would support between 187,000 and 226,000 new jobs by the fifth year of the programme. The ‘low’ estimate includes only direct and supply-chain jobs associated with the new investments; the ‘high’ estimate includes downstream jobs in consumer industries, stimulated by the increased incomes (and hence consumer spending) generated in the renewable energy and related industries.
Researchers at RBC mapped the intersectoral employment transitions and associated skills and training requirements resulting from the shift to a net-zero economy in Canada (Guldimann and Powell, 2022). Like other research, this study projected enormous job-creation potential in clean energy, infrastructure, energy conservation, and related fields. The study forecasts between 235,000 and 400,000 new jobs will be created in occupations whose tasks and qualifications have changed because of the energy transition. That total job-creation would be even larger if Canada stepped up its investments in new energy systems; the report estimates $60 billion per year in incremental capital spending estimated is necessary to meet climate targets. New work in these evolving and emerging occupations will substantially outweigh the gradual decline in employment in traditional fossil fuel energy production and use. RBC expects existing skills shortages for construction, managerial, technical, and manufacturing workers to become even more pressing as the energy transition gathers pace, and these net new jobs are created. The report calls for urgent action by governments, employers, and educators to prepare for the coming surge in demand for skilled workers in fields related to sustainable energy.
The Centre for Future Work developed a detailed breakdown of the various channels through which employment adjustments can be facilitated during a gradual phase-out of fossil fuel production and use, and corresponding ramp up of renewable energy and energy conservation projects (Stanford, 2021). In this forecast, a gradual phase-out of direct fossil fuel-related employment (estimated at 159,000 jobs across Canada in 2019, or 0.9% of total employment) would be possible over a 20- or 25-year phase-out (consistent with reaching net-zero targets by 2050), with no involuntary layoffs. Much of this transition would be facilitated through retirements, since workers in fossil fuel industries are older than the economy-wide average. New jobs created in renewable energy and other sustainable activities (including amelioration of former fossil fuel production sites) would be important in smoothing the transition. But there are many other pathways through which fossil fuel jobs could also be replaced, including through job-creation in other sectors (such as construction, non-fossil minerals, transportation, and private and public services). Supports for the roughly 4000 non-retiring fossil fuel workers who would need redeployment each year (according to that phase-out timeline) could include income insurance programs, retraining supports, relocation incentives, and small business start-up grants. Successful transition plans in other examples of fossil fuel phase-out (including Germany’s gradual shut-down of black coal mining, or Ontario’s phase-out of coal-fired electricity) prove that gradual, supported transitions of this sort can be accomplished without lay-offs, so long as timelines are long and gradual, and affected workers are supported with a portfolio of adjustment supports.

International Research

All countries are grappling with the economic and labour market issues related to the energy transition, and there is now a large body of international research attesting to the powerful employment-creating effects of major renewable energy and emissions-reduction investments. Here we summarize a few of the more notable international research efforts:

The International Energy Agency (2021) has developed a detailed global forecast of employment opportunities generated by worldwide investments to meet commitments to net-zero emissions by 2050. These investments will involve trillions of dollars of new capital spending on renewable energy systems, transmission facilities, energy conservation, and related construction work. These investments would create 30 million new jobs globally by 2030: 14 million positions in clean energy systems, and 16 million in construction and retrofit work. That will far more than offset the 5 million jobs expected to disappear from the fossil fuel sector over the same period, as fossil energy is gradually phased out. The IEA forecast does not include new jobs in related manufacturing activity, nor the spillover employment (through upstream supply chains and downstream consumer industries) spurred by these enormous investments.
Annual research has been published for a decade by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), documenting the steady growth of global employment in renewable energy activities. Its most recent report (2023) tallies 13.7 million renewable energy jobs worldwide in 2022, up 8% from the previous year – and almost double the number 10 years earlier (in IRENA’s first report). Two-thirds of those jobs are in Asia, and over 40% are in China alone (which leads the world in new solar and wind installations). The biggest single sector for renewable energy employment is solar photovoltaic power investments, supporting 4.9 million jobs worldwide in 2022. But the employment benefits of renewable energy are widespread across several other sectors, including wind, hydro, bioenergy, geothermal, and heat pumps. The IRENA tally does not include jobs in energy conservation or upgrading work, nor jobs in manufacturing renewable energy equipment. IRENA’s research highlights especially strong job-creation potential in decentralized projects, such as small-scale hydropower and decentralized solar installations.
A project to catalogue the global employment benefits from renewable energy and emissions-reduction investments in five case-study countries was undertaken by the United Nations International Development Organization and the Global Green Growth Initiative (2015). This project estimated the macroeconomic and employment effects of an investment programme worth 1.5% of national GDP in Brazil, Germany, Indonesia, South Africa, and South Korea. The investment was divided between renewable energy projects and energy conservation and emissions reduction projects. The employment impacts of these investments considerably outweighed employment declines associated with fossil fuel production. The employment benefits of energy transition investments were greater in developing countries (due to lower wage levels and greater labour-intensity of production methods). Final employment created for each $1 million (U.S.) of investment ranged from 9.5 in Germany to over 100 in Indonesia.
An especially ambitious modeling exercise was undertaken by Jacobson et al. (2017) to simulate a road-map for steep emission reduction (consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C) in 139 countries by 2050. The research first compiled a plan for the scale and composition of investments required to achieve such emissions reduction. It then estimated the combined employment effects of those investments, across all 139 countries included in the project, on the basis of employment coefficients for specific types of investment spending and energy production. It anticipated a total of 52 million new jobs to be created by those investments over the period to 2050, almost double the 27 million jobs expected to disappear from fossil fuel production and use over the same period.
A team at the University of Massachusetts Amherst has developed a template methodology for estimating the employment gains from green energy investment plans in various U.S. states, and nationally. One recent application of that template is reported by Pollin et al. (2023), describing the estimated employment impacts of three major energy-related initiatives of the Biden administration: the Bipartisan Infrastructure Legislation, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the CHIPS Act (Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors). Applying employment input coefficients across all industries affected by the various measures in that Act, and capturing indirect (supply chain) and induced (consumer spending) effects, the research predicted an average of 2.9 million new jobs over the first five years of the measures. The construction sector alone was expected to add almost one-half million new jobs under the combined effect of the three bills.
The C40 network of mayors of major global cities (C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group, 2021) modeled the employment impacts from a proposed major green investment programme for 96 cities around the world – recognizing that large urban centres face particular challenges and opportunities in transitioning to renewable energy. Their green recovery scenario sees over 50 million net new jobs created in those city regions by 2030, powered by capital investments in renewable energy systems, urban transit, conservation and building retrofits, and other emissions reduction projects. Each $1 million U.S. in green capital spending supports 10 to 21 job-years of new employment – considerably more than conventional carbon-intensive projects and energy systems. The faster the commitment to renewable energy investments, the larger are the job benefits: in an accelerated green investment scenario (which would speed up capital spending by 2 years), some 80 million net new jobs are created in the 96 cities in the same time frame. As a case study, the C40 work also featured a focused analysis of investment and employment opportunities arising from the energy transition in Canada (Berensson et al., 2021). Their analysis forecast up to 1.8 million new person-years of employment in Canada arising between 2020 and 2030 from a major emissions-reduction investment scheme in 12 large cities, including construction, manufacturing, and operating and maintenance roles. Building construction and retrofits accounted for over half of that total.

References

Berensson, Markus, et al. (2021). Canada: The Case for an Urban Green and Just Recovery, Technical Report(London: C40 Cities), https://www.greenpolicyplatform.org/sites/default/files/C40%20Cities%20(2021)%20Canada%20-%20The%20case%20for%20an%20urban%20green%20and%20just%20recovery%20(Technical%20report).pdf.

Bridge, Tyee, and Jim Stanford (2025). Jobs for Today: Canada’s Building Trades and the Net-Zero Transition, Centre for Civic Governance, https://ccg.eco/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Jobs_for_Today_Report.pdf.

C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group (2021), The Case for a Green and Just Recovery (London: C40 Cities), https://c40.my.salesforce.com/sfc/p/#36000001Enhz/a/1Q000000gRCH/24OgSbRwj1hZ305yJbyPMZJQKhXXWNYE8k8sr2ADsi8

Clean Energy Canada (2019). Missing the Bigger Picture (Vancouver: Clean Energy Canada), https://cleanenergycanada.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Report_TER2019_CleanJobs_20190516_v3_ForWeb_FINAL.pdf.

Clean Energy Canada (2021). The New Reality (Vancouver: Clean Energy Canada), https://cleanenergycanada.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Report_CEC_CleanJobs2021.pdf.

Dunsky Energy Consulting (2018). The Economic Impact of Improved Energy Efficiency in Canada: Employment and Other Economic Outcomes from the Pan-Canadian Framework’s Energy Efficiency Measures (Montreal: Dunsky Energy Consulting), https://cleanenergycanada.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/TechnicalReport_EnergyEfficiency_20180403_FINAL.pdf.

Ecology Action Centre (2019). Nova Scotia Environmental Goals and Sustainable Prosperity Act: Economic Costs and Benefits for Proposed Goals (Halifax: Ecology Action Centre), https://ecologyaction.ca/sites/default/files/2022-06/EAC_GP_Climate%20Jobs%20Report_Sept2019_0.pdf

Guldimann, Colin, and Naomi Powell (2022). Green Collar Jobs: The skills revolution Canada needs to reach Net Zero (Toronto: RBC Canada), https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/green-collar-jobs-the-skills-revolution-canada-needs-to-reach-net-zero/.

International Energy Agency (2021). Net Zero by 2050 (Paris: International Energy Agency), https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/deebef5d-0c34-4539-9d0c-10b13d840027/NetZeroby2050-ARoadmapfortheGlobalEnergySector_CORR.pdf.

International Renewable Energy Agency (2023). Renewable Energy and Jobs Annual Review 2023 (Abu Dhabi: IRENA), https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2023/Sep/IRENA_Renewable_energy_and_jobs_2023.pdf.

Jacobson, Mark Z., et al. (2017). “100% Clean and Renewable Wind, Water, and Sunlight All-Sector Energy Roadmaps for 139 Countries of the World,” Joule 1(1), pp. 108-121, Supplementary Tables Available at https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S2542435117300120-mmc1.pdf.

Kaddoura, Saeed, et al. (2020). Alberta’s Emerging Economy: A Blueprint for Job Creation through 2030(Calgary: Pembina Institute), https://www.pembina.org/reports/albertas-emerging-economy.pdf.

Lee, Marc, and Seth Klein (2020). Winding Down BC’s Fossil Fuel Industries: Planning for Climate Justice in a Zero-Carbon Economy (Vancovuer: Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives), https://www.policyalternatives.ca/sites/default/files/uploads/publications/BC%20Office/2020/03/ccpa-bc_Winding-Down-BCs-Fossil-Fuel-Industries.pdf.

Lee, Marc, Caroline Brouillette, and Hadrian Mertins-Kirkwood (2023). Spending What it Takes: Transformational Climate Investments for Long-Term Prosperity in Canada (Ottawa: Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives), https://policyalternatives.ca/publications/reports/spending-what-it-takes.

Navius Research (2019). Quantifying Canada’s Clean Energy Economy: An Assessment of Clean Energy Investment, Value-Added and Jobs (Vancouver, Navius Research), https://cleanenergycanada.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/2019-03-13-Clean-Energy-Economy-FINAL-REPORT.pdf.

Stanford, Jim (2021). Employment Transitions and the Phase-Out of Fossil Fuels, (Vancouver: Centre for Future Work), 113 pp., https://centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Employment-Transitions-Report-Final.pdf.

Thomas, Stephen, and Tom Green (2022). Shifting Power: Zero-Emissions Electricity Across Canada by 2035(Vancouver: David Suzuki Foundation), https://davidsuzuki.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Shifting-Power-Zero-Emissions-Across-Canada-By-2035-Report.pdf.

United Nations International Development Organization and the Global Green Growth Initiative (2015). Global Green Growth: Clean Energy Industry Investments and Expanding Job Opportunities (Vienna: UNIDO), https://gggi.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/2015-06-Global-Green-Growth-Clean-Energy-Industrial-Investments-and-Expanding-Job-Opportunities-Overall-findings.pdf.

Xuereb, Slias, and Inez Hillel (2023). Job Creation Through Transformational Climate Investments: Assessing the Impact of Proposed Climate Investments in Canada (Ottawa: Vivic Research), https://vivicresearch.ca/work/employment-impacts-of-spending-what-it-takes