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Building a Sovereign, Value-Added, and Sustainable Economy
In this existential 'Elbows Up' moment for Canada's economy, public discourse has been overly influenced by loud demands from corporations and their political backers to implement their age-old agenda: deregulate (especially environmental rules), cut taxes, build more pipelines.
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Per Capita GDP is a Deeply Flawed Measure of Economic Performance and Living Standards
During the recent federal election, some business and political commentators used data regarding Canada’s relative performance in growing its “GDP per capita” to argue that Canadians have experienced a “lost decade” of stagnation and falling living standards. In this two-part analysis that first appeared here and here in Policy Options magazine (published by the Institute for Research on Public Policy), Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford explains how GDP per capita is calculated – and why it is not appropriate for measuring human well-being or economic progress.
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Lessons from (Another) Crude Oil Price Collapse
This commentary draws on analysis of oil futures markets contained in the Centre for Future Work’s recent report, Counting the Costs: Impacts of the 2022 Oil Price Shock for Canadian Consumers and Workers, by Jim Stanford and Erin Weir. That report computes the costs of the 2022 oil price spike for Canadians: directly & indirectly it cost the average Canadian household $12,000 over 3 years.
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New Report Shows Speculative Oil Markets Drove Inflation Crisis — And It’s Poised to Happen Again
A new report from the Centre for Future Work reveals that financial speculation in global oil markets — not supply shortages or carbon pricing — was the primary driver of Canada’s inflation surge in 2022. The report, Counting the Costs, finds that inflated oil and gas prices, passed directly and indirectly to Canadian consumers and businesses, cost each household an average of $12,000 over three years.
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Who’s Subsidizing Whom?
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has threatened immediate across-the-board 25% tariffs on imports from Canada, possibly as part of a plan to use “economic force” to annex Canada. Trump claims the Canada-U.S. trade deficit constitutes an “emergency” (thus justifying violation of America’s trade treaties), and amounts to the U.S. “subsidizing” Canada to the tune of $200 billion per year.
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‘Vibecession’: Reconciling Positive Statistics with Negative Sentiment
Newly released data for the third quarter of 2024 (July-September) shows the economy has continued to grow, albeit slowly. Consumer spending was the brightest light in the third quarter data: growing at an annualized rate of 3.5% (in real, inflation-adjusted terms), and constituting the largest single source of new demand.
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Yes, Public Sector Jobs Count, Too
B.C.’s unemployment has been among the lowest in Canada for several years, economic growth and business investment have been among the strongest, and the province now has the highest hourly wages for employees of any province. Yet some business commentators try to debunk that record, claiming it’s all due to public sector spending and hiring.
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Explainer Video on Corporate Power and Profit-Led Inflation
Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford is featured in a new 6-minute video, produced by the Broadbent Institute, discussing the role of corporate price hikes in post-pandemic inflation.
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Regulating Prices Not Such a Crazy Idea
Kamala Harris’s entry into the U.S. presidential campaign has had a dramatic impact on political discourse there – not just in the opinion polls, but in policy thinking, as well. For example, in her recently-unveiled economic platform she advocates new federal laws against price-gouging, to limit the power of private businesses to unreasonably jack up prices for groceries and other essentials...
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New Data on Link Between Profits and Inflation
Consumer price inflation has decelerated in Canada in the last year, as rapidly as it accelerated in the 2021-2022 period (sparking high interest rates which in turn caused a painful economic slowdown). At last reading (for April 2024), year-over-year CPI inflation had slowed to 2.7% (down from 8% less than two years earlier). That’s within the Bank of Canada’s target range (2% plus or minus a cushion of 1%). And low enough that the Bank cut its policy rate for the first time in this cycle in June. Many credit the Bank of Canada’s tough monetary medicine for this quick slowdown in inflation. But that assumes that the initial driving…