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Your Job is at Risk from Artificial Intelligence… but not for the Reasons You Think
It’s three years since the public launch of ChatGPT, and the rapid roll-out of artificial intelligence apps since then has amplified fears that AI will lead to massive job loss as human workers are replaced by algorithms. For many concrete reasons, this is unlikely. However, the exaggerated financial hype associated with AI investments poses a more imminent threat to employment. In this commentary, originally published in the Toronto Star, Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford explains how the stock market’s mania for AI assets is inflating a financial bubble that will inevitably pop, with major consequences for the real economy.
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How do Banks Make so Much Money, Anyway?
CBC journalist Andrew Chang is known for his unique ability to break down complex topics, for his ‘About That’ program. He has recently posted an outstanding segment on how Canada's big banks make so much money. Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford was one of the experts interviewed for the show.
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Bringing Capital Home Would Boost Canadian Growth, Reduce Trade Imbalance with U.S.
Donald Trump claims his aggressive trade actions are justified because of ‘unfair’ trade practices by other countries, that result in big U.S. trade deficits. But the real cause of those perpetual U.S. trade deficits is ongoing capital inflows to the U.S. from other countries – including Canada. In this commentary originally published in the Toronto Star, Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford shows that Canada is now a huge net lender to the U.S., with a positive foreign investment balance there of $1.6 trillion. Bringing some of that capital back to Canada would not only help to finance the major projects we are undertaking to protect our economy against…
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Financial Disclosure not Enough to Steer Investment in the Energy Transition
In the following commentary, Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford looks back at a landmark speech given in 2015 by Mark Carney – at the time the Governor of the Bank of England, now Prime Minister of Canada. The speech was a powerful expose of how private financial investors tend to have too short of a time-frame (seeking to maximize immediate stock market returns or quarterly profits) to properly account for the long-run consequences of certain investments (such as investments in fossil fuel production). Carney termed this financial myopia the ‘tragedy of the horizon’, and advocated for more explicit voluntary financial disclosure by financial institutions and corporations in the…
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Lessons from (Another) Crude Oil Price Collapse
This commentary draws on analysis of oil futures markets contained in the Centre for Future Work’s recent report, Counting the Costs: Impacts of the 2022 Oil Price Shock for Canadian Consumers and Workers, by Jim Stanford and Erin Weir. That report computes the costs of the 2022 oil price spike for Canadians: directly & indirectly it cost the average Canadian household $12,000 over 3 years.
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Canada’s Grocery Giants Spend Billions on their Own Shares
Amidst public anger at high food prices, Canada’s major supermarket chains have argued they are not the source of the problem. Food prices are high, they claim, because of higher costs charged by food processors and other suppliers. While their profits have grown to record highs during the current inflationary episode, they claim this merely reflects a normal profit ‘margin’...
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House of Cards: Interest Rates, Household Debt, and the Housing Crisis
Last week the Bank of Canada increased its overnight interest rate, for the 9th time in little over a year, to 4.75%. In making its announcement, the Bank cited a slight increase in year-over-year headline CPI inflation last month. This, the Bank suggested, was one reason why it abandoned a temporary ‘hold’ on further interest rate increases announced in January. The Bank’s rationale is ironic, because the Bank’s rapid run-up in interest rates was the main cause of that small uptick in inflation
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Getting Ready for GFC 2.0
One consequence of the unprecedented tightening of monetary policy imposed by central banks in most countries (including Canada) over the past year has been growing fragility in the broader financial system. Banks, near-banks, and other financial players – many of them highly leveraged after 15 years of near-zero interest rates – are now grappling with the impacts of higher interest rates on their investments and balance sheets.
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Profits, Not Wages, Have Driven Canadian Inflation
Every January, the Globe and Mail newspaper publishes a fascinating set of charts (curated by journalist Jason Kirby) prepared by Canadian economists, with their insights into economic trends likely to shape the following year. Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford was invited again to participate in the collection. He submitted the following chart and text, highlighting the dramatic increases in corporate profits in Canada that have been the dominant distributional outcome of recent inflation. In recent months, the Bank of Canada has focused on the labour market as the main culprit behind higher inflation: The unemployment rate is too low, wages are rising too fast and this so-called “overheating”…
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When Will We Learn? Speculation is no Way to Build a Real Economy
History repeated itself last year in financial markets: several high-flying ventures that once generated a frenzy among financial speculators, came crashing back to earth in the face of higher interest rates, fears of recession, and a rush to the exits by more prescient investors. In this commentary, originally published in the Toronto Star, Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford reviews five speculative bubbles that popped in 2022. The most dangerous, from a macroeconomic perspective, is the accelerating downturn in Canadian housing prices – as rising debt charges squeeze prospective buyers. A major downturn in housing will have big impacts on real employment and spending. The common lesson from these…