• Commentary,  Finance,  Globalization,  Trump Tariffs

    Bringing Capital Home Would Boost Canadian Growth, Reduce Trade Imbalance with U.S.

    Donald Trump claims his aggressive trade actions are justified because of ‘unfair’ trade practices by other countries, that result in big U.S. trade deficits. But the real cause of those perpetual U.S. trade deficits is ongoing capital inflows to the U.S. from other countries – including Canada. In this commentary originally published in the Toronto Star, Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford shows that Canada is now a huge net lender to the U.S., with a positive foreign investment balance there of $1.6 trillion. Bringing some of that capital back to Canada would not only help to finance the major projects we are undertaking to protect our economy against…

  • Commentary,  Globalization,  Macroeconomics,  Trump Tariffs

    Elbows Up for Canada’s Economy

    On September 15, 40 progressive economists and policy experts gathered in Ottawa for the ‘Elbows Up Economic Summit.’ The Summit was co-sponsored by the Centre for Future Work, the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (CCPA), and several other national civil society organizations. It was co-chaired by Centre Director Jim Stanford and Peggy Nash, Executive director of the CCPA.

  • Commentary,  Industry & Sector,  Trump Tariffs

    The Role of Industrial Policy in Defending Canada Against Trump’s Attacks

    There is growing awareness of the importance of targeted supports for key high-value industries, as part of the effort to protect Canada’s economy in the wake of Donald Trump’s trade war. His tariffs have deliberately targeted Canada’s most important value-adding, high-tech manufacturing industries – including auto, aerospace, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, machinery, trucks, and manufactured wood products. The goal is clearly to undermine the viability of those industries, to the advantage of U.S.-based locations. That would reinforce Canada’s growing (and precarious) reliance on unprocessed natural resource products to pay our way in world trade.

  • Commentary,  Trump Tariffs

    Trump’s “Shakedown” Must be Resisted: Media Coverage of Centre for Future Work Report

    The Centre for Future Work’s new report on trade talks between Canada and the U.S. has received extensive coverage in Canadian media, as the August 1 deadline to reach a ‘deal’ with the U.S. looms. The report, “A Bad Deal With Trump is Worse Than No Deal At All,” lists several reasons why locking in one-sided U.S. tariffs in a non-binding memorandum with the erratic U.S. President would hurt Canada much worse than other U.S. trading partners, and reduce chances of rolling back Mr. Trump’s aggressive trade war through either international dispute settlement or in U.S. courts.

  • Globalization,  Research,  Trump Tariffs

    A Bad Deal with Trump is Worse than No Deal at All

    Trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S. are continuing, as the revised August 1 deadline approaches. Reports indicate that despite Canadian concessions (on border security, defense spending, and the Digital Services Tax), the U.S. is refusing to remove current and threatened tariffs on Canadian products. Last week Prime Minister Carney warned Canadians that an eventual deal with the U.S. will likely include continued substantial U.S. tariffs. An emerging narrative from government and business quarters suggests that if tariffs imposed on Canada are lower than on other countries (resulting in a less severe ‘average effective tariff’ rate), then Canada should count this as a victory.

  • Commentary,  Globalization,  Technology,  Trump Tariffs

    Giving Donald Trump Some of His Own Medicine on Services Trade

    The Canadian government recently abandoned its new Digital Services Tax (DST), which since January 1 2024 had collected a 3% levy on all revenue in Canada from sales of digital advertising or marketplace services. The companies which dominate this industry (like Google, Meta, Amazon, or AirBnB) typically avoid most or all normal corporate income tax, by shifting revenue and profits from countries like Canada to tax havens where taxes are low or zero.

  • Globalization,  Research,  Trump Tariffs

    New Data Confirms Canada-U.S. Trade is Balanced and Mutually Beneficial

    The U.S, Census Bureau has released year-end 2024 data on America’s bilateral trade flows in goods and services. This data reconfirms that the U.S trade deficit is neither new, nor an “emergency” (as Trump has claimed in order to invoke special emergency powers to set tariffs). And it reconfirms that the U.S. trade relationship with Canada is uniquely balanced, and beneficial to the U.S.

  • Commentary,  Finance,  Globalization,  Macroeconomics,  Trump Tariffs

    Lessons from (Another) Crude Oil Price Collapse

    This commentary draws on analysis of oil futures markets contained in the Centre for Future Work’s recent report, Counting the Costs: Impacts of the 2022 Oil Price Shock for Canadian Consumers and Workers, by Jim Stanford and Erin Weir. That report computes the costs of the 2022 oil price spike for Canadians: directly & indirectly it cost the average Canadian household $12,000 over 3 years.

  • Commentary,  Globalization,  Trump Tariffs

    Most of our GDP Never Crosses a Border

    Most of what our economy produces—close to 80%—never crosses a national border. Rather, it is produced in Canada, by Canadians, for Canadians. In fact, the economy is not as ‘globalized’ as is often assumed. To be sure, Trump’s trade war will cause enormous disruption. But Canadians should feel confident in out country’s ability to survive, and ultimately thrive