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This Is Not An Ordinary Federal Budget
As the federal government prepares to table its next budget on November 4, most of the public debate has centred on how big the deficit will be – as if that is the only metric of significance to Canadians. This is predictable and disappointing. At a moment when Canada as a country faces unprecedented challenges to our prosperity and sovereignty arising from Donald Trump’s trade war and other threats, a much more important question is how will the budget equip Canada to protect itself against Trump’s attacks, reorient away from so much dependence on the U.S. market, and invest in the things (including physical and social infrastructure) necessary to a…
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Bringing Capital Home Would Boost Canadian Growth, Reduce Trade Imbalance with U.S.
Donald Trump claims his aggressive trade actions are justified because of ‘unfair’ trade practices by other countries, that result in big U.S. trade deficits. But the real cause of those perpetual U.S. trade deficits is ongoing capital inflows to the U.S. from other countries – including Canada. In this commentary originally published in the Toronto Star, Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford shows that Canada is now a huge net lender to the U.S., with a positive foreign investment balance there of $1.6 trillion. Bringing some of that capital back to Canada would not only help to finance the major projects we are undertaking to protect our economy against…
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Elbows Up for Canada’s Economy
On September 15, 40 progressive economists and policy experts gathered in Ottawa for the ‘Elbows Up Economic Summit.’ The Summit was co-sponsored by the Centre for Future Work, the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (CCPA), and several other national civil society organizations. It was co-chaired by Centre Director Jim Stanford and Peggy Nash, Executive director of the CCPA.
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The Role of Industrial Policy in Defending Canada Against Trump’s Attacks
There is growing awareness of the importance of targeted supports for key high-value industries, as part of the effort to protect Canada’s economy in the wake of Donald Trump’s trade war. His tariffs have deliberately targeted Canada’s most important value-adding, high-tech manufacturing industries – including auto, aerospace, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, machinery, trucks, and manufactured wood products. The goal is clearly to undermine the viability of those industries, to the advantage of U.S.-based locations. That would reinforce Canada’s growing (and precarious) reliance on unprocessed natural resource products to pay our way in world trade.
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Building a Sovereign, Value-Added, and Sustainable Economy
In this existential 'Elbows Up' moment for Canada's economy, public discourse has been overly influenced by loud demands from corporations and their political backers to implement their age-old agenda: deregulate (especially environmental rules), cut taxes, build more pipelines.
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Trump’s “Shakedown” Must be Resisted: Media Coverage of Centre for Future Work Report
The Centre for Future Work’s new report on trade talks between Canada and the U.S. has received extensive coverage in Canadian media, as the August 1 deadline to reach a ‘deal’ with the U.S. looms. The report, “A Bad Deal With Trump is Worse Than No Deal At All,” lists several reasons why locking in one-sided U.S. tariffs in a non-binding memorandum with the erratic U.S. President would hurt Canada much worse than other U.S. trading partners, and reduce chances of rolling back Mr. Trump’s aggressive trade war through either international dispute settlement or in U.S. courts.
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A Bad Deal with Trump is Worse than No Deal at All
Trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S. are continuing, as the revised August 1 deadline approaches. Reports indicate that despite Canadian concessions (on border security, defense spending, and the Digital Services Tax), the U.S. is refusing to remove current and threatened tariffs on Canadian products. Last week Prime Minister Carney warned Canadians that an eventual deal with the U.S. will likely include continued substantial U.S. tariffs. An emerging narrative from government and business quarters suggests that if tariffs imposed on Canada are lower than on other countries (resulting in a less severe ‘average effective tariff’ rate), then Canada should count this as a victory.
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Giving Donald Trump Some of His Own Medicine on Services Trade
The Canadian government recently abandoned its new Digital Services Tax (DST), which since January 1 2024 had collected a 3% levy on all revenue in Canada from sales of digital advertising or marketplace services. The companies which dominate this industry (like Google, Meta, Amazon, or AirBnB) typically avoid most or all normal corporate income tax, by shifting revenue and profits from countries like Canada to tax havens where taxes are low or zero.
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New Data Confirms Canada-U.S. Trade is Balanced and Mutually Beneficial
The U.S, Census Bureau has released year-end 2024 data on America’s bilateral trade flows in goods and services. This data reconfirms that the U.S trade deficit is neither new, nor an “emergency” (as Trump has claimed in order to invoke special emergency powers to set tariffs). And it reconfirms that the U.S. trade relationship with Canada is uniquely balanced, and beneficial to the U.S.
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Lessons from (Another) Crude Oil Price Collapse
This commentary draws on analysis of oil futures markets contained in the Centre for Future Work’s recent report, Counting the Costs: Impacts of the 2022 Oil Price Shock for Canadian Consumers and Workers, by Jim Stanford and Erin Weir. That report computes the costs of the 2022 oil price spike for Canadians: directly & indirectly it cost the average Canadian household $12,000 over 3 years.