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A Bad Deal with Trump is Worse than No Deal at All
Trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S. are continuing, as the revised August 1 deadline approaches. Reports indicate that despite Canadian concessions (on border security, defense spending, and the Digital Services Tax), the U.S. is refusing to remove current and threatened tariffs on Canadian products. Last week Prime Minister Carney warned Canadians that an eventual deal with the U.S. will likely include continued substantial U.S. tariffs. An emerging narrative from government and business quarters suggests that if tariffs imposed on Canada are lower than on other countries (resulting in a less severe ‘average effective tariff’ rate), then Canada should count this as a victory.
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Giving Donald Trump Some of His Own Medicine on Services Trade
The Canadian government recently abandoned its new Digital Services Tax (DST), which since January 1 2024 had collected a 3% levy on all revenue in Canada from sales of digital advertising or marketplace services. The companies which dominate this industry (like Google, Meta, Amazon, or AirBnB) typically avoid most or all normal corporate income tax, by shifting revenue and profits from countries like Canada to tax havens where taxes are low or zero.
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The Economic Benefits of Expanded Child Care in British Columbia
The Centre for Future Work has released a new report documenting the widespread economic benefits resulting from the ongoing expansion of early learning and child care services (ELCC) in British Columbia, as part of the roll-out of the new Canada-wide $10-per-day child care system.
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Public Health Care Is Not Just a ‘Cost’… It’s an Economic Driver
Spending on Canada’s medicare system is typically understood simply as a major ‘cost’ item for government budgets. Seldom do Canadians consider the other side of the coin: public health care is also a pillar of Canada’s economy, and a powerful driver of growth, job-creation, and innovation.
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Supporting Skilled Trades Labour Supply as Canada Embarks on Historic Building Boom
Canadian governments and industries are getting set to launch a major expansion in infrastructure and housing construction, as part of the ‘elbows up’ response to uncertainty caused by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. One potential challenge in that strategy will be ensuring adequate supply of skilled construction workers.
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Albertans’ Economic Hardship Reflects Provincial Policy Choices, not “Attacks” by the Rest of Canada
In this commentary, originally published in the Toronto Star, Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford rebuts claims that the living standards of Albertans have been harmed by “attacks” on the province’s oil industry (as claimed by Conservative leaders Andrew Scheer and Pierre Poilievre). In fact, the province’s oil output (and the profits of the oil industry) have never been higher.
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New Data Confirms Canada-U.S. Trade is Balanced and Mutually Beneficial
The U.S, Census Bureau has released year-end 2024 data on America’s bilateral trade flows in goods and services. This data reconfirms that the U.S trade deficit is neither new, nor an “emergency” (as Trump has claimed in order to invoke special emergency powers to set tariffs). And it reconfirms that the U.S. trade relationship with Canada is uniquely balanced, and beneficial to the U.S.
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Per Capita GDP is a Deeply Flawed Measure of Economic Performance and Living Standards
During the recent federal election, some business and political commentators used data regarding Canada’s relative performance in growing its “GDP per capita” to argue that Canadians have experienced a “lost decade” of stagnation and falling living standards. In this two-part analysis that first appeared here and here in Policy Options magazine (published by the Institute for Research on Public Policy), Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford explains how GDP per capita is calculated – and why it is not appropriate for measuring human well-being or economic progress.
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Lessons from (Another) Crude Oil Price Collapse
This commentary draws on analysis of oil futures markets contained in the Centre for Future Work’s recent report, Counting the Costs: Impacts of the 2022 Oil Price Shock for Canadian Consumers and Workers, by Jim Stanford and Erin Weir. That report computes the costs of the 2022 oil price spike for Canadians: directly & indirectly it cost the average Canadian household $12,000 over 3 years.
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Most of our GDP Never Crosses a Border
Most of what our economy produces—close to 80%—never crosses a national border. Rather, it is produced in Canada, by Canadians, for Canadians. In fact, the economy is not as ‘globalized’ as is often assumed. To be sure, Trump’s trade war will cause enormous disruption. But Canadians should feel confident in out country’s ability to survive, and ultimately thrive