Albertans’ Economic Hardship Reflects Provincial Policy Choices, not “Attacks” by the Rest of Canada

In this commentary, originally published in the Toronto Star, Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford rebuts claims that the living standards of Albertans have been harmed by “attacks” on the province’s oil industry (as claimed by Conservative leaders Andrew Scheer and Pierre Poilievre). In fact, the province’s oil output (and the profits of the oil industry) have never been higher. Citing previous research published with the Alberta Federation of Labour, the article documents the decline in real wages in Alberta and the role of provincial policies (like the 8-year freeze on the minimum wage) in suppressing family incomes in that province.

Alberta’s Economic Pie is Bigger than Ever. But Working Albertans Aren’t Getting their Share of It

By Jim Stanford

(Trigger warning: The author was born, bred, and educated in Alberta. Reader discretion is advised.)

Because the Liberal party won the most seats in a national election (the fourth time in a row), but most Alberta ridings went Conservative (for the umpteenth time in a row), Canada is now said to be facing a national unity crisis.

Premier Danielle Smith facilitates separatism (while claiming she doesn’t support it).

Alberta business leaders play the national unity card in demanding fast approval of more pipelines: unless the oil industry (assumed to proxy Alberta’s general interests) gets what it wants, national unity is in jeopardy.

Federal Conservatives, while disavowing explicit separatism, reinforce the claim Alberta has been mistreated by the country. Interim leader Andrew Scheer, on X, complains Ottawa has “attacked Canada’s oil and gas industry for 10 years.”

An aspiring Alberta MP-in-waiting, Pierre Poilievre, echoes that view. While saying he personally opposes separation, Poilievre complains “Albertans have a lot of legitimate grievances,” the result he says of a decade of attacks on oil. This rhetoric will excite the voters of Battle River-Crowfoot. Whether it helps Mr. Poilievre contest a future federal election, however, is a different question.

Many Albertans are indeed frustrated and angry — and with reason.

There is no province where real incomes and living standards have deteriorated more in the past decade than Alberta. According to StatsCan, Alberta has experienced the second-biggest increase in incidence of low income of any province since 2015.

Workers have endured a 10 per cent decline in real wages (adjusted for inflation) over the last decade, worse than any other province. Minimum wages haven’t budged in seven years.

Despite falling real wages, living costs remain among the highest in Canada, and Alberta suffered the highest inflation of any province last year. Electricity prices, auto insurance, and tuition fees — all governed by provincial rules — have soared faster than anywhere else in Canada.

But can any of these problems be blamed on the rest of Canada, or the federal government? In particular, does Alberta’s hardship stem from suppression of Alberta’s oil industry, as Mr. Poilievre claims?

This is an obvious attempt at diversion that Albertans should dismiss.

During this decade of relentless federal “attacks,” Alberta’s oil production grew by 52 per cent. Production records are being broken again in 2025, tracking more than 4.4 million barrels a day so far. The expanded TMX pipeline — bought and completed at federal expense — has boosted both output and prices, modestly reducing the long-standing discount on Canadian oil sales in the U.S Midwest.

Oil industry profits have also never been higher, thanks to record volumes, cost-cutting, and the 2022 oil price spike.

Petroleum producers and refiners pocketed after-tax profit of $192 billion over the last four years alone — four times more than in the entire 2010s. Corporate profits gobble up a huge slice of Alberta’s GDP: about 40 per cent of total output over the last five years, twice as much as the rest of Canada.

In short, there’s never been more oil wealth generated in Alberta, despite (or perhaps because of) the Liberals holed up in Ottawa.

Yet average Albertans aren’t getting their share of it.

The boom in oil production and profits certainly isn’t translating into jobs.

Oil extraction and service firms shed more than 30,000 jobs in the province over the last ten years, even as production boomed.

In 2014 the industry hired 128 workers for every million barrels of oil produced. Last year, thanks to self-driving trucks, automated facilities, and downsizing, that number halved to just 61.

So it’s no surprise residents of my home province are cranky.

Their economy produces more GDP per worker than any other. The economic pie they bake is bigger than ever. But the average Albertan’s standard of living is lower than a decade ago.

It wasn’t Ottawa that laid them off, cut their pay, froze the minimum wage, drove up electricity and insurance costs, and put their health care at risk. It was the enemy within.

Alberta’s oligarchs aren’t speaking for the province, they are speaking for themselves.

And the sooner the rest of the population can get past the phoney Alberta versus Canada narrative, the sooner they’ll start toward a genuine solution to their woes: namely, winning a fairer share of the abundant wealth they already produce.