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Orthodox Cure for Inflation Will Be Worse than the Disease
Evidence is growing that Canada’s economy, and most other OECD nations, is heading into recession. Dramatic increases in interest rates around the world, motivated by a desire to clamp down inflation that broke out after the COVID pandemic, is undermining investment, job creation, and household spending power. The Centre for Future Work has jointly released a major new report with the Canadian Labour Congress documenting the flaws in the Bank of Canada’s diagnosis of current inflation, and the risks in its one-sided approach to solving the problem. The report, titled A Cure Worse than the Disease? Toward a More Balanced Understanding of Inflation and What to Do About It, was…
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Slowing Economy Should Give Bank of Canada Pause … But It Won’t
New GDP data released last week confirm that higher interest rates and other headwinds have already slowed economic growth in Canada to a crawl. This should give the Bank of Canada pause to reconsider its schedule of aggressive interest rate hikes. That inflation was never attributable to overheated domestic economic conditions. Instead, statistical evidence indicates that current inflation is mostly the result of several unique post-pandemic factors: supply chain disruptions, higher energy prices, and a catch-up of consumer spending from depressed pandemic levels. Moreover, those largely temporary forces are already abating: several key global price indicators have fallen substantially in recent months (including petroleum, food, and shipping costs). By undercutting…
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Wage Growth Picking Up, but Shows Important Differences Across Categories
There are some signs of a modest acceleration in nominal wage growth in Canada. This is not surprising, given both relatively tight labour markets and the impact of accelerating inflation on the wage demands of Canadian workers. Average hourly wages paid across the labour market grew 3.9% in the 12 months ending in May (latest data). That is an increase from year-over-year growth rates of 2.5% to 3% recorded in late 2021 and early in 2022. Wages are still growing at only about half the pace of consumer prices, which grew 7.7% (according to the Consumer Price Index) over the same period. Since wage growth is weaker than price inflation,…
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Corporate Power and Post-Pandemic Inflation: A Deeper Dive
There is abundant research (including from the Centre for Future Work, here here and here) showing that corporate profit margins have expanded significantly in the course of the current acceleration of inflation. It is not solely a process of companies passing along higher input and labour costs to consumers through higher prices. Rather, corporations have used their market power and disruptions in normal supply channels to widen their profit margins. In Canada, after-tax corporate profits have increased to their highest share of GDP ever, coincident with the sharp rise in consumer prices. Since it’s corporations who literally set those prices, perhaps this shouldn’t be surprising. Labour costs, meanwhile, have lagged…
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Canadian Workers Need More Technology, Not Less
There is little evidence that robots and other advanced technologies are displacing workers and causing technological unemployment in Canada. To the contrary, Canada’s adoption of new technology has surprisingly slowed down in recent years. That is the conclusion of a major new report on innovation and automation in Canada’s economy, from the Centre for Future Work. The report, titled Where are the Robots?, reviews nine empirical indicators of Canadian innovation, technology adoption, and robotization. They paint a worrisome picture that Canadian businesses have dramatically reduced their innovation effort since the turn of the century, and are lagging well behind other industrial countries in putting new technology to work in the…
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Income Security and Workers’ Power: Work, Wages, and Basic Income after COVID
The success of the CERB and complementary policies in helping Canadian households through the COVID pandemic confirmed the effectiveness and feasibility of much stronger income security. The CERB was not designed to be a “basic income”, but its broad coverage, generally adequate benefit level ($500 per week), and effectiveness in preventing mass dislocation during the pandemic has spurred arguments for a permanent form of basic income. Thanks to the CERB, poverty actually fell in Canada despite the pandemic. That confirmed we could achieve permanent reductions in poverty with similar, permanent income supports. Employers, however, complained loudly that the CERB undermined the “incentive to work” among current or prospective staff. Indeed,…
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Solid Wage Gains for Construction Workers Needed to Cement Productivity Gains
Paycheques for workers in Ontario’s booming construction industry are coming up short despite surging productivity and a sharp rise in building activity, a new report from the Centre for Future Work shows. Relative to consumer prices, the real purchasing power of construction wages has been stagnant in recent years even though real labour productivity in the sector has grown very strongly. Workers are generating more output and revenue for their employers, but not getting their fair share of the value they’re creating. Nominal wages in construction grew at an average rate of 1.9% over the last five years, considerably slower than broader wages in Ontario’s labour market (which grew at…
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10 Paid Sick Days Would Have Little Impact on Business Costs
A proposed 10-day paid sick leave policy in B.C. will increase overall business costs by just one-fifth of one percent. That’s the finding of new research from the Centre for Future Work. The new report, by Centre Director Jim Stanford, calculates the impact of the proposed policy on sick leave entitlements, absences, replacement staff costs, and bottom-line business expenses. The ultimate impact of paid sick days is estimated at just 0.21% of existing business expenses, and will have no measurable impact on overall competitiveness or profitability. The findings discredit claims by some business lobbyists that 10 days of paid sick leave would cause widespread bankruptcies and job loss. Moreover, these…
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Ideas Into Motion: Progressive Economics and Social Change Movements
Our research at the Centre for Future Work is motivated by a deep commitment to improving the jobs, working conditions, and living standards of working people in Canada and around the world. We combine our knowledge of economics, our quantitative and qualitative research, and our connections with trade unionists and social movements to develop arguments and evidence that supports campaigns for decent work, stronger communities, and sustainability. Our Director, Dr. Jim Stanford, was recently asked to contribute his ideas on the links between progressive economics and real-world social change movements for a forthcoming collection: The Handbook of Alternative Theories of Political Economy, edited by Frank Stilwell, Tim Thornton, and David…
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Bargaining Tech: Shaping New Technologies to Improve Work, not Devalue It
The Centre for Future Work has published another major paper in its PowerShare project, dealing with the impact of new technology on the quantity and quality of work in Canada – and strategies for ensuring that new technology produces more benefits for workers. The paper is entitled Bargaining Tech: Strategies for Shaping Technological Change to Benefit Workers, co-authored by Jim Stanford and Kathy Bennett. It provides an overview of the complex, contradictory ways that technological change is affecting jobs in Canada. It also discusses how technology could be better managed and implemented to achieve better, fairer, more inclusive high-tech outcomes. The report reviews recent debates about whether new technology will…